Finland and Sweden are both currently in talks to join NATO, with a decision expected to come in the next few days. Finland, with a massive border against Russia, poses an incredible threat to Putin if this decision goes through. Putin has claimed “a military technical response” if Finland joins NATO (BBC). Given the current situation with Ukraine, I believe that this is the best time for Finland and Sweden to join NATO. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has the Russian military completely occupied (the majority of Russian troops normally stationed along the Russian-Finland border—among the entire majority of the Russian military—were deployed to Ukraine). It has the Russian economy in a downward spiral, and it has Russia alienated from the rest of the world; given the circumstances of their invasion, they are in no position to enact on their threats of “a military technical response.” The invasion of Ukraine is a first hand example of what might happen to Finland if they wanted to join NATO when Russia’s military was not occupied. If Finland wants to join NATO, the time is now, as Russia is too occupied by Ukraine to commit to any other action.
Via AP News
The map above shows the expansion of NATO since the mid 1900s. Evidently, NATO members have been pushing towards the Russian border, threatening Putin more and more. This is why he invaded Ukraine, though it is possible that the invasion will become the reason for Finland and Sweden to join NATO. AP News reports that “After remaining firmly against membership for decades, public opinion in both countries shifted rapidly this year. Polls show more than 70% of Finns and about 50% of Swedes now favor joining.”
Unlike Ukraine, NATO members have already vowed to protect Finland and Sweden in a possible Russian attack, even despite NATO membership not being declared just yet. This is a stark contrast to the much more passive approach of NATO members supporting Ukraine, and such a declaration may help to deter Putin from any attack as well. Military action against NATO members would be devastating for Russia in any situation and would certainly lead to a military defeat unless Putin utilized Russia’s nuclear arsenal; as Putin’s nuclear threats seem to be more of a deterrent than a real threat, I believe that Putin will be unable to act at all if Finland and Sweden do decide to join NATO. With a weakened military, a destroyed economy, and international disapproval, Russia is becoming more and more cornered both figuratively and geographically.
Is NATO membership from Sweden and Finland a good thing? Is it beneficial to only the security of NATO and not Sweden/Finland (does NATO membership jeopardize Sweden/Finland’s security in exchange for bolstering NATOs)? Or is it beneficial to the security of all parties involved?
Is the expansion of NATO worth angering one of the most powerful presidents in the world? Is it worth the bloodshed and terror that we’ve seen in Ukraine?
How do you believe Putin will respond if/when Sweden and Finland decide to join NATO?
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-business-world-war-ii-stockholm-sweden-258926c3bad81d918d7475cf95bfd992
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/10/finland-is-just-days-away-from-applying-for-nato-membership.html
https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/10/europe/finland-nato-putin-analysis-intl-cmd/index.html
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61369963
8 comments:
I think that NATO membership would be beneficial for Finland and Sweden as it would be a deterrent to future aggression by nations such as Russia. Any country should they attack a NATO member runs the risk of having the combined strength of the international alliance thrown at them in response and thus, I believe that them joining the alliance would add a layer of protection. I think that their integration into NATO would be a mutual enhancement of the strength of both NATO overall and it would likely also increase the security of Finland and Sweden, despite it in the short term potentially aggravating Russia. As stated, Russia's resources are centered/focused in Ukraine currently which I would think decreases chances of any action being taken against the Scandinavian countries if they decide to join NATO. It is definitely not ideal to provoke an unstable and dangerous President, and hopefully the deterioration of Russian economy and strained resources prevent any ability for more war fronts to be opened. I do worry however that Putin will retaliate against the nations and NATO should they join with enhanced destructive measures in an attempt to demonstrate dominance and control. It is difficult to predict the outcomes of certain actions during strenuous and complicated times. (as is reinforced countlessly throughout history), and if Sweden and Finland do decide to join NATO now, I think that they have to be ready to face potential threats and violence by Russia.
I agree that Finland and Sweden joining NATO is a good thing. Additionally I think its beneficial to both NATO and the nordic countries as their security is now our security concern. I think that while it will anger Putin I don't think he will act on it as it does not change the situation in Ukraine too much. if the war does come to a wrap am sure Putin will work on further pressure Europe into weakening NATO in some capacity. Though I think at the end of the day Russia will not do anything signifigant, its no USSR. Russia doesnt have the politcal power of finesse currently to actually influence other countries's policies as much as it used to. I think the US should do this however just cause it maybe funny to see how Europe would react. Maybe threaten to leave NATO or cut funding from the US see if the US could force some European countries to conceed or apease America.
I also agree that Finland and Sweden joining NATO is beneficial for both them and NATO given concerns for their security. While this would certainly anger Putin, I'm not sure that attempting to appease him is useful at this point considering his relatively unprovoked attack on Ukraine. If anything, this should prove to him that NATO will never tolerate the invasion of another country. There is also the consideration that Putin is currently focused on Ukraine so he would not have the resources to respond to Finland and Sweden joining NATO. However, Putin would likely still threaten Finland and Sweden if they join NATO despite Russia's ongoing conflicts but it may be helpful to assert a sense of dominance over Putin.
NATO membership is a good thing for Sweden and Finland because it gives them protection against possible military attacks. I believe joining NATO means that NATO countries will support you if you get attacked by any other country. For example, if Russia attacks Finland (after they have joined NATO), NATO countries like the US will respond and attack Russia. Considering the fact that Russia has not many allies and has an abysmal economy right now, a membership into NATO would be guaranteed protection for a long time. Finland would not be attacked by Russia in the near future. The same would apply to Sweden. If anything, I feel this is less beneficial to NATO considering NATO countries could be attacked through nuclear weapons if they allow Finland to join their alliance. I seriously doubt Putin will use nuclear weapons but you never know what will happen.
The expansion of NATO is worth angering Putin because it guarantees more people won’t be subject to the atrocities occurring in Ukraine at the moment. This is important for human rights and doing what is morally right. The main counter argument would be that Putin could unleash his nuclear arsenal at any time but I doubt he would do that considering that would probably mean destruction all around the world. Right now, the situation in Ukraine is very messy and I think they should include Finland into NATO now because it is the opportune moment.
I don't think that Sweden and Finland's potential NATO membership is a threat to their security. In fact, I think that their weakened opposer, Russia, could view their NATO membership as the nail in the coffin to their offensive initiative. While we know this act would anger Putin, I think that aside from the (hopefully) unlikely nuclear attack, there aren't many consequences left to enact considering all that Ukraine has gone through. If Putin were more than likely to violently respond to the expansion of NATO, I think it would have to be considered what option would pose the greater evil (NATO expansion or further Russian invasion), but given the current circumstances of Russian authority, this concern is not super legitimate. That being said, the assumption that Putin will not come off as strong as he did in Ukraine cannot be made with complete certainty, which leads me to say that I think Sweden and Finland's joining of NATO is well advised, but does not guarantee Russia "backing down," only increased security if Russia makes a move.
I think Sweden and especially Finland joining nato could greatly help them. Finland sharing a their border with Russia, and Sweden sharing a close border. This can anger Putin, as shown for invading ukraine and I doubt that that Putin would start nucelar war, and there would be no consequences for these two countries joining NATO. If Putin contuines to be agressive and pushes through Ukraine, he continues to move historically neutral countries towards treaties, turns more opposition towards him, I believe that he is going to be angry and threaten these two countries but I doubt that he is going to make a move towards them knowing this is going to anger and provoke other possible world super powers.
I think that if Sweden and Finland joined NATO it would be nothing but positive. As mentioned in the article, it would bolster NATO’s overall defense as well as provide guaranteed protection for both countries. The only thing that could happen (which is unlikely) would be Putin actually utilizing Russia’s nuclear arsenal but that would be an extreme worst case scenario that would likely lead to a world war.
Like I mentioned before, I think it would be a bold but wise move for Sweden and Finland to join NATO since the likelihood of Putin attacking NATO-protected countries is low, especially when the Ukraine crisis has the Russian military spread thin. I think the difference here is that NATO never promised to protect Ukraine which is why Putin wasn’t too concerned about intervention. As of right now, not only is Russia slightly crippled economically and in military strength, NATO claims that they will protect Sweden and Finland which they didn’t do for Ukraine.
I certainly hope that Putin would not be rash enough to initiate a nuclear war. Given Russia’s situation, it seems like Putin’s “military technical response” sounds like a bluff and at most he would send troops into both countries which would elicit a minor response.
I think that Finland and Sweden joining NATO would help both parties. It would allow NATO to grow stronger and would provide Finland and Sweden with protection. This will most likely anger Putin, but I don’t think that should necessarily influence this decision. As Mary said, this makes one have to choose between a possible invasion by Russia, or the resources and protection that come with being a part of NATO. Given the current situation in Ukraine, I am unsure if Putin will invade Finland and Sweden with the same force if they do join NATO. Russia is quickly losing soldiers and resources in this war against Ukraine, and I don’t think that it will have enough strength of resources to continue the battle on two other countries. This bodes well for Finland and Sweden who can join NATO while Russia is “distracted.”
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