On February 24th, Russia officially invaded Ukraine with this war only just beginning. Escalation has been going on for weeks with Russian troops and military vehicles building up right outside the border. On early Thursday morning, Russia sent air strikes into Ukraine as an act of unjustified attacks on Ukraine prompting the start of the full war. Ukraine has been able to hold off Russian troops from getting further into the country all while Russia has shelled cities and even towns all across Ukraine. Russia had started invading all across Ukraine from the north and the east side of the country that shares a border with Russia. Ukraine's capital of Kyiv has been targeted by Russia as its main objective while shelling all militarily advantageous locations.
As stated in a New York Times article, this war is different with the goal to expand the country and its influence back to the previous power of the USSR. "A Russian invasion of Ukraine would look like the kind of war that has been largely absent in the past 80 years and that was once common. It would involve a powerful nation setting out to expand its regional dominance by taking over a neighbor. A war like this — a voluntary war of aggression — would be a sign that Putin believed that Pax Americana was over and that the U.S., the European Union and their allies had become too weak to exact painful consequences"(New York Times). With some more context, "Pax Americana" refers to a time after WWII when most of the world was at relative peace from the influence of America. This seems to have disappeared and now Putin is trying to take advantage of the current situation of political disarray especially, in the United States. Putin is trying to change the course of the world's government as stated by Larry Diamond of Stanford University as a trend of "democratic recession"(New York Times). This could possibly be a violent takeover of an autocracy taking control over a democratic country. But the costs for Russia have been huge with the US promising huge sanctions against the war with other countries following suit. Russia's economy has greatly fallen as a result from sanctions and the negative light of its attacks on Ukraine.
This kind of event has not happened to the world in such a long and it feels helpless to simply just watch as even though we are in the 21st century, full country-on-country war can still happen. Losing Ukraine to Russia would be a huge issue to the rest of the Democratic world and to other nearby countries while only showing the rise of an autocratic takeover.
What should the US or NATO's actions be?
Should what should be the punishment for Russia's attack on Ukraine and why do you think Putin wanted this?
What overall thoughts do you have on the Ukraine-Russian conflict?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-invasion-scrambles-prospects-for-global-economy-11645699066
https://www.the-sun.com/news/4768049/ukraine-russia-news-kyiv-airport-capture/ (just image)
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/world/europe/ukraine-maps.html
https://www.newyorker.com/books/double-take/russias-war-on-ukraine-in-context
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/21/briefing/ukraine-russia-war-pax-americana.html
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/01/19/us-allies-ukraine-weapons-russia-invasion-527375
2 comments:
I think that Putin's invasion of Ukraine is a terrible calamity for both countries. Casualties are adding up on both sides, 137 Ukrainian civilians dead and around 400 wounded so far, and this is only the first few days. Russian markets are down 33% due to the economic sanctions and many Russians are hitting the streets in several major Russian cities to protest the war. The fact that they are willing to protest against a dictator in his own country, as well as showing that the propaganda has not affected them is telling of Putin's weak hold on his own population as compared to a usual totalitarian dictatorship, such as in China. Putin is destroying the lives of countless people and harming the lives of countless more for a silly war over a vague historical justification.
I predict that the war is most likely going to end up with sustained guerilla warfare after Ukraine's military has been defeated because the Russian military remains one of the most powerful in the world. However, Ukraine has been ramping up its military for quite awhile and has received billions of dollars in international aid from countries in Europe and the United States, among others. Russian morale remains to be evaluated in battle but so far military casualties are in Ukraine's favor. Having to occupy an entire country that is hostile to Russia will be costly for the Russian government. Putin might be expecting Ukrainians to greet Russian occupation with open arms but that is far from the truth. I do not know what he is expecting with this invasion, other than trying to reunify the USSR by sacrificing his entire economy.
NATO should focus all its efforts on dissuading Russia from using nuclear weapons, and should prepare to retaliate if Russia does involve nuclear strikes. However, there is a popular misconception that the United States could "shoot down" a Russian nuclear missile. This isn't true, according to the Wall Street Journal. What's important to know is that nuclear warfare would be a last resort from Russia, and would probably only happen if the United States and NATO gets involved militarily. Aside from sending in money, anti-tank weapons, and other weapons, NATO should NOT send in troops, nor establish a "no fly zone." According to the New York Post and every other publication, this would essentially start a large scale war.
I agree with Julien that this will probably end with a long term guerilla warfare scenario.
As far as the punishment for Russia's attack, I think the best option is to completely isolate Russia economically... which has already been done. I'm afraid to say anything else because it might sound completely silly in a few days. Everything is changing so quickly, but from the looks of it, it seems Russia is just going to destroy all of Ukraine to a pile of rubble before any diplomacy happens.
https://nypost.com/2022/03/06/us-warns-no-fly-zone-in-ukraine-could-set-off-world-war-iii/
https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-nuclear-weapons-explained-11645996119
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