Putin Officially Orders Troops into Separatist Regions of Ukraine for "Peacekeeping"

Russian and Belarusian forces in a military exercise in September 2021 via AP News

The conflict in Ukraine has been continually escalating in the past few weeks, with efforts for diplomacy consistently resulting in unmet demands. In his speech today, Putin accused Ukraine of escalating the conflict, though as of Sunday, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has claimed that “pro-Russian forces had violated the ceasefire agreement 20 times, including through using mortars, anti-tank grenade launchers and artillery systems to shell over a dozen Ukrainian settlements. One Ukrainian soldier was killed during the attacks, and another was wounded” (Politico). Today, Putin has claimed that regions in Eastern Ukraine (which are occupied by pro-Russian forces) are independent from Ukraine, utilizing his statement as justification for the official decree he signed just hours later that has ordered Russian armed forces into the pro-Moscow regions of Eastern Ukraine. The decree officially states “peacekeeping functions” in these Eastern regions as the justification for the invasion, though countries like the U.S. are predicting a much broader operation into more of Ukraine due to the organization and loading of amphibious ships and airborne unit equipment. The U.S. Secretary of State even added that Putin has “directly contradict[ed] Russia’s claimed commitment to diplomacy, and is a clear attack on Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity.” Russia’s actions are being condemned internationally, with many European countries and even Australia promising that the actions will be met with consequences.

Satellite image of Russian forces organizing near the Ukrainian border via NDTV.com

Will Russia’s actions be the leadup to World War III? Probably not. Biden has implied that he will do everything possible to avoid direct American-Russian troop conflict and has said that American troops will not be deployed into Ukraine, recognizing the dangers of such a direct conflict by saying that we’d be living in a “very different world than we’ve ever been in” if it would happen. After today’s events, however, he has also said that “it is going to be a disaster for Russia if they further invade Ukraine and that our allies and partners are ready to impose severe cost and significant harm on Russia and the Russian economy.” Both Russia and America have an incredible interest in not conflicting directly with another; however, both groups are evidently willing to intervene if either threatens their security, as shown with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine because of the threat of them joining NATO (which would add another NATO nation to its border) and the movement of American troops to Poland (which borders Ukraine, serving as an opportunity of expansion of Putin decides to broaden the invasion). If either side felt threatened enough, war could be possible. The US ambassador to the United Nations has said this:


“President Putin asserted that Russia today has a rightful claim to all territories, all territories from the Russian Empire, the same Russian empire from before the Soviet Union from over 100 years ago. That includes all of Ukraine. It includes Finland. It includes Belarus and Georgia and Moldova, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Lithuania. Latvia, and Estonia. It includes parts of Poland and Turkey.”

Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations

While NATO may not directly intervene in a Russian invasion of Ukraine (outside of HEAVY sanctions), they would protect neighboring countries if Putin decided he wanted to broaden the invasion. A war between NATO and Russia would be devastating for the world.


America has the largest military in the world and the highest international military budget by a large margin. Backed by NATO, the U.S. would without a doubt defeat Russia in a traditional war; however, in 2022, modern weapons of advanced countries pose a new threat that, if used by Putin, could force NATO’s hand if Russia does decide it wants more. On the topic of a potential war between NATO and Russia, Putin says, “of course, NATO’s and Russia’s potentials are incomparable. We understand it. But we also understand that Russia is one of the leading nuclear states and by some modern components, it even outperforms many. There [would] be no winners.”

President Putin in his speech about Russia's nuclear arsenal

I apologize for the lengthy post, but this continually escalating conflict has the potential to develop into an international threat. Though an all-out war between Russia and NATO remains extremely unlikely, an official Russian invasion of Ukraine could be a stepping stone to something bigger.


What do you think are the implications of the (likely very near) Russian invasion of Ukraine?


Is NATO’s response to the Ukraine-Russian conflict appropriate? What should/could be done differently?


What do you think will be the outcome of the current Ukraine-Russian conflict, or how do you think the conflict will evolve?


Do you have any other comments about the Ukraine-Russian conflict?

Sources:

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-news-02-21-22/index.html

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/20/tension-rise-as-russia-continues-to-mobilize-troops-near-ukrainian-border-00010407

https://metro.co.uk/2022/02/08/vladimir-putin-threatens-nuclear-war-in-europe-if-ukraine-joins-nato-16066912/

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/10/us/biden-ukraine.html