As election day gets closer, both parties are attempting to grab the support of historically divided groups having them vote in their respective favor. Latinos being the projected largest minority to vote in the presidential election, President Trump and former Vice President Biden are both attempting to expand their latino and hispanic voter base. Neither of the two candidates have been overwhelmingly successful in garnering the latino base as a whole, but this has been the case in many past presidential elections, especially for the Republican Party.
As seen in a graphic below from Pew Research Center, Republican candidates traditionally achieve about 30% of the Latino Vote. In 2016, Trump won 28% of latino voters support and is hoping to hold onto that base coming into the 2020 election. According to both The New York Times and Wall Street Journal, Trump is focusing on the support of a specific subset of latino voters, the Evangelical or other highly-religious Christian affiliates.
While to some it might seem unlikely that Trump could gain support from the same base of people he "attempted to demonize from the outset of his first campaign," these strongly religious voters may overlook some of his policies against immigration, focusing on the party he is affiliated with. This single or couple-issue voting is what Trump and the GOP are relying on to keep their ~30% latino voter base. That said, of those 30% not all are religious with smaller subset falling in the Evangelical religious group.
These hispanic voters were (rightfully) dubbed as "politically homeless" by Pastor Joe Rivera of a Phoenix, AZ church in an interview with the NYT, earlier this month. He spoke to the reasons why the latino vote has always been so divided, especially when it comes to Hispanic Evangelicals. These voters see the Republican party as upholding their beliefs against abortion and for open economic gain, issues they strongly value.
So why is this important? Although Hispanic Evangelicals are only a small portion of the electorate, they are a key part to Mr. Trump's re-election. In the "battleground states including Florida and Arizona" (NYT) their political support will likely make a larger impact.
Possible discussion topic: How can this single-issue voting be connected to public opinion projects from last week? Religion and politics, are they as separate as America, "land of the free," boasts?
7 comments:
There Latino population in the US can be a decision turner in the upcoming elections. Biden seems could be appealing to them as he is less extreme about stopping immigration and will be more lenient with illegal immigrants, as well as allowing more people to get their legal documents. Biden also speaks out more for minorities rights and anti-discrimination which is a reality for several Latino US citizens who have the right to vote.
It may seem that the logical answer for Latinos is to not vote Trump since he has some clear racial bias against Mexico, and has been doing extreme measures to keep illegal immigrants out of the US. However, a point to be made is that the Latino population whose rights Trump attacks the most are those who are illegal, and therefore are unable to vote. This means that the latinos voting in the election might not have a personal reason to vote against Trump other than empathy for those of the same race, or maybe family members who are also affected. Also if they feel offended by the attacks that Trump has said about Latinos.
Trump has been known to want to conquer the evangelical population of the US. By doing things such as say that he is pro-life (contradicting what he has said earlier) and making abortion rights more restrictive. This can conquer the Latino voter population who thinks religion is more important than the minority protection that they might get from Biden.
The fact that latino voters are being targeted by trump because of their religion is interesting to me. It seems that religious ideology will often influence the voters. The influence of religion in government was a fear of the founding fathers. It is interesting to see that two still impact each other, despite being separated.
Remember 4 years ago when Trump said he would build a wall? It's crazy how times have changed. While Trump is very vocal about his anti-immigration beliefs, realistically, he is all talk and no action. He has not done much to stop Latino immigration, and the Latinos probably understand that. The religious aspect is interesting, and it makes sense why these Latinos are in favor of Trump for other reasons. The fact that people are surprised about the "politically homeless" illustrates how race is often made out to be a bigger deal than it really is. After all, why do people think your race determines your political affiliation? It doesn't!
After Trump's hostile comments towards Latino's 4 years ago, his plans to build a wall at the southern border and his treatment of Latino immigrants in ICE camps, it is very ironic that now his party is trying to grasp their support. However, as puzzling as it is to see this Latino population still planning to support for Trump, it is just as interesting to see just how much religious and economic values play into an individuals political support. I just always assumed that minority voting communities like Latinos and African Americans naturally lean liberal but the ability for the republican party to hold onto Latino voters made me realize just how diverse support for these political parties are because of these strong values. Maybe though, it is due to our biparty political system in the U.S. where, for the most part, voters have to choose either the set of ideals from a democrat or republican candidate. It would be interesting to see, if a multiparty system emerges, how the vote amongst the Latino populations is split when more parties with much more diverse political agendas become a reasonable option.
I agree with Liam. At this point, it’s like both political parties come back every 4 years to appeal to the vote from the minorities, holding false promises that never seem to be fulfilled. In this case, Trump is attempting to gain some latino voters through religious connection. Both candidates are also trying to appeal to black voters. For example, Joe Biden has been on many podcasts to spread his ideas and influence, which has caused somewhat minor controversies.
“If you have trouble figuring out who you’re for me or Trump, then you ain’t black” (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jhcgmwj3NAc). Although this comment might’ve been entirely an accident and unintended, it creates and fuels this narrative that the Democrats own the black vote, which in itself is very concerning. These comments aren't limited to Biden, because Trump also has arguably more controversial comments. Overall, I think it’s interesting to see the means to which both political parties have to go to appeal to certain minority groups.
Interesting note:
African Americans used to vote for the Republican party since the civil war. However, beginning in the Great Depression era, African Americans began to take part in the New Deal Coalition that voted for Democrats (New Deal, Great Society).
Hi everyone- all your comments gave me some great insight into many new perspectives and issues that I did not cover in depth in my post. One thing I wanted to reiterate/clarify is that, the Republican Party recognizes they will never "control" the latino vote, but are attempting to hold onto the more religious base they have won the support of in previous elections.
Laurent brought up an interesting point in his comment, questioning whether or not a multiparty system (I'm assuming like ones in Europe) would impact which party minority and religious voters identify with. I agree that the two-party system is definitely feeding into the party-line division of voters, even when those voters might not agree with all the party's policies- in this case, agree with Republicans on abortion, but not on immigration.
As you said, the Latino vote is extremely important, especially for this election with Florida and Arizona. I've heard that there's a large, conservative latino population in Florida (some of whom asked Trump questions at the town hall recently). It makes perfect sense that Trump is appealing to the religiosity of Latinos, as that aligns with conservative values Republicans endorse. Obviously, as Trump was pro-choice for most of his life then switched publicly to pro-life demonstrates that Trump is willing to go to most ends to strengthen his support base.
I think it's important to note that though Trump's policies (whether his claims/goals or De Facto results) have been restrictive of immigration, especially Latino immigration, this doesn't mean it makes sense to Latinos to not support him. Trump's immigration policies generally target illegal immigration (though Trump often insults immigrants too). Many legal Latino immigrants oppose illegal immigration because they had to wait often years and go through many steps in order to legally enter this country. It's mixed bag between abortion, insulting Latinos, fighting against illegal immigration, etc., which will ultimately determine which way the Latino vote goes.
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