Joe Biden is leading Donald Trump in the national polls for the presidential election, on account of BBC, The Guardian, NPR, and CNN polls. However, this doesn’t guarantee the Democratic candidate victory. Just four years ago, even though Hillary Clinton had a clear lead over Trump in the polls [for almost the entirety of the 2016 campaign] she ended up losing in the electoral college. The handful of swing states that will probably decide the election and be targeted heavily are being targeted heavily by Biden and Trump. Currently, there are 9 “battleground” states, out of which, Arizona, Texas, Ohio, and Iowa are toss-ups. Montana, Kansas, and Indiana are likely to vote Republican, whereas Pennsylvania and New Hampshire are likely to vote Democrat.
NPRs final Electoral College map analysis shows Joe Biden going into Election Day with the clear edge, while President Trump has a “narrow but not impossible path” to winning the presidency. Among states leaning or likely to go in a particular candidate’s favor, Biden leads by 279 electoral votes compared to Trump’s 125. If Trump wins all the battleground states and one Biden-leaning state, the map would be exactly 259:259 votes, meaning the House of Representatives would have the responsibility of deciding who wins. Though these numbers seem difficult and daunting to achieve, Trump is still well “within the margin of error in all seven of the toss-up states and the one toss-up congressional district in Maine.”
However, Trump needs to win back some female voters, but he doesn’t realize that insulting them doesn’t get the job done. During a recent rally in Michigan, he told the women that he needed their support, and that in exchange, he would help get their husbands back to work. The Washington Post reported on this, mentioning that women “have suffered greater professional and economic consequences during the [pandemic],” and that Trump’s remark ignored the reality of fallout from the current pandemic: that women also work. In addition to Trump inadvertently digging his own grave, “younger Americans are voting early in droves this cycle, far outpacing their pre-Election Day turnout in several key swing states at this time in 2016,” and according to NBC News Decision Desk/Data for Progress data, triple the voters from ages 18-29 have cast early votes this year compared to the previous election. Among all age demographics, the voters in the youngest group skew most heavily towards Biden, giving him a significant advantage amongst the younger crowd. According to Sean McElwee, a co-founder of the [progressive] polling firm Data for Progress, since “voting is a habitual behavior,” if young Democrats consistently vote at an increased rate in the upcoming elections, the GOP can face unprecedented consequences.
There is a lot of uncertainty heading into Tuesday, November 3rd, so for now, all we can do is wait for the ballots to be counted (and vote if you’re of age!).
4 comments:
This is a very different and interesting race and therefore I think that that is another factor for why the path to victory for either candidate is unclear. For instance, I read today that 62% of the number of individuals who voted overall in 2016 have already voted early in the 2020 election. Millions of other individuals are planning to vote early as well. However, there has been a lot of controversies regarding which votes can be legitimately counted. NPR reports that the governor of Texas got support from courts to limit the number of drop-off sites for mail-in ballots. Additionally, the Trump Campaign sued the Nevada secretary of state and Clark County registrar in order to block the counting of early votes. There are various instances like these; in locations across the country, this has had an impact on early voting, making it difficult for individuals to vote. I wonder if this will change the course of the election on a large scale.
I find it fascinating that this election has brought such a huge turnout among young voters. I wonder, will this high turnout last? Is the turnout a result of current issues like the Coronavirus or recent BLM movement's? Is a response to a newfound anger towards or disappointment in the government? What has caused this generation of 18-29 year olds to turnout so heavily this election and not the ones before? Should America be celebrating this high voter turnout? Is this turnout reflective of a generation that is more adamant about making change and having a voice? Or is it a result of a government that is failing to meet the needs of young citizens?
This year, if no other year, has definitely forced younger voters to face the problems of today's society, be it by being thrown into a pandemic with little help from the government or the eye-opening BLM protests. Young voters are taking charge and using their vote to achieve the change they want. Although it's unfortunate that an ineffective government is needed to get people to vote, the challenges brought by this year might have been necessary in order to create a higher voter turnout, and hopefully its effects will last in future elections. As of now, I would't be too hopeful that Biden will win, since the multiple times Trump shot himself in the foot four years ago didn't cost him the election. We will just have to wait and see.
Swing states are in some aspects a consequence of the electoral college system. Due to the winner takes all nature of many states' voting systems, states can "swing" in favor of a specific candidate that barely wins over the other. It is unfortunate as many voters may be upset at the end of vote-counting after finding that the candidate that voted for is not even considered due to that candidate losing their state as a whole. The election this year is quite close, and a variety of factors could explain the difference between polling and what has happened in reality. Current predictions still suggest Biden may win, but their accuracy depends on how they were made. It appears that groups such as the Lincoln project that wanted to get Republican voters to vote for Biden rather than Trump may have had minor influences, for split ticket voting seems to have occurred to some extent. At the same time, many people have voted for Trump despite predictions that he would no be as popular as he seems to be.
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