Super Tuesday is tomorrow.
Election Day Voting sites:
William E. Walker Recreation Center
650 Shell Blvd
Foster City, CA 94404
Hours: 7am-8pm
SMC Health Department Administration
225 W 37th Ave
San Mateo, CA 94403
Hours: 7am-8pm
Most sources predict a big win for Bernie Sanders. According to Five Thirty Eight’s model, Sanders has a solid chance of carrying Vermont, Colorado, Utah, and California, where as Biden is expected to carry Alabama. The model predicts a somewhat rough night for Bloomberg, Klobuchar, and Warren. With Buttigieg dropping out of the race however, these predictions by the model are very likely to change.
In the long run, Sanders is predicted to win as well. In a separate article by The Independent, Allan Lichtman, a professor from American University who has predicted elections from 1984, predicts that either Sanders will win or “ nobody wins, and for the first time in over 50 years we actually have a convention nominating the candidate.” While Lichtman points out that his model doesn’t predict primaries, he nonetheless said that there are “plenty of signs for a brokered convention.” What is a brokered convention? It would occur if no candidate got more than half the delegates after the first round of voting. The convention would then begin negotiations, and brokers (aka governors, senators, mayors) would try to sway and persuade other delegates. The last brokered convention occurred almost 70 years ago.
Assess the importance of Super Tuesday for Sanders.
Assess the importance of Super Tuesday for non-Sanders candidates.
Assess the likelihood of a brokered convention versus a contested convention.
2 comments:
I also think it's pretty obvious that Sanders is going to win today since he has a large majority in the states that are voting at the primaries today. What did shock me however was the Pete Buttigieg stepped down from the election since I thought he was doing pretty good so far. He was second place in having the greatest number of delegates and seem to perform well during the debates. I think I remember reading that he dropped out since he did not think he would receive a lot of minority/people of color votes. Do you think Buttigieg should have stepped out of the race or should he have stayed?
Responding to Srimaye, I think Buttigieg stepping down is kind of cool. I see it as him recognizing he does not have a lot of minority/people of color votes, and if he has won at Super Tuesday, might reflect poorly on the American government as being non-representative. But I also am not totally sure about his reasoning.
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