https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/21/us/politics/trump-impeachment-survey.html
https://www.prri.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/PRRI_Oct_AVS-web.pdf
As the Impeachment inquiry continues, some interesting developments have occured in who supports President Trump. While the average American is now more likely to support Trump's impeachment, the Republicans have remained mostly loyal. Specifically, white evangelicals and Republicans who watch Fox News as their primary news source are almost guaranteed to believe Trump should stay in office, while the average Republican is slightly less likely to.
However, the real cost has been the non-Republican coalition that Trump brought together in 2016. For example, 40% of the white women in the working class now say they support impeachment while it was 29% in September. These groups are important to Trump because they brought some swing states to his side, ultimately winning him the election, so if his conduct is deterring them for voting for him, he is more likely to lose this election. If his 2016 coalition falls apart like Lyndon Johnson's after he broke his promise to end the Vietnam war, the Republican party and constituency may be severely weakened, even if Trump's base support seem to be more vigorously supporting him.
While the result of the impeachment inquiry is being hotly debated amongst political commentators, I believe that in the end, it won't matter whether Trump is impeached or not. The confidence for Trump that some hold will begin to waver and the Democratic candidate, whoever they may be, will gain the upper hand. In the end, I believe the Impeachment scandal will cost Trump the election.
6 comments:
I think the NY Times article provides a good quote that shows how President Trump has increased polarization on both sides of the political spectrum: "Eighty-two percent of Republicans, for example, believe the Democratic Party has been taken over by socialists. And almost the same percentage of Democrats, 80 percent, said the Republican Party had been taken over by racists." However, the article also shows asymmetric polarization, with the most conservative Republicans becoming even more staunch in their support for President Trump. Zoe's first paragraph highlights the role of the media in confirming and strengthening the beliefs people already hold, and the fact that many steadfast conservatives consume exclusively Fox News while ardent liberals may indulge in a wider variety of media outlets helps explain this asymmetrical polarization.
In regards to polarization, the pdf Zoe linked states that "nearly three in four (73%) Americans say they wish Trump’s speech and behavior were more consistent with past presidents...Less than half (46%) of Republicans say they wish Trump’s behavior was more consistent with past presidents, compared to 74% of independents and 88% of Democrats who say the same." These statistics indicate a clear polarization between both parties. However, it does indicate that the majority of Americans do believe that Trump has been a president whose behavior has been inappropriate and connecting his actions to the Ukraine scandal does make me believe that he should get impeached for it. However, impeachment does not necessarily mean that he cannot run for office again...
These are some great points here. How media is portraying candidates and Trump has been really forced with polarization in the media. Srimaye offered some good information on how trumps speech is affecting why Trump is showing different looks of a president then ever before. Although polls are saying Trumps disapproval rating is high and shows he is most likely going to lose, don't forget what happened in 2016. On the presidential elections eve it showed that electorates voted Hillary over Trump 297 to 241. What happened the next day was surprising to almost everybody. Do I think Trump can beat out the democratic candidate? I honestly have no idea anymore.
Any sort of developments regarding Trump will either have a positive or negative effect, to an extent, on his approval and chances of reelection. When a person of political authority, such as Trump, is impeached about any affair, supporters for the individual especially should reconsider the reasons as to why they support the political figure. Sure, the president is human and can make minor mistakes here and there, but when a prominent call for impeachment rises, it should be investigated and followed through until it can be legally upheld or defeated otherwise. It is also worth to take into consideration the backgrounds of the people either supporting or against impeachment, as this current impeachment status appears to be extremely polarized and biased, being that over 90% of Republicans believe that Trump should not be impeached whatsoever.
I agree, Zoe; the actual impeachment happening matters less than Trump losing credibility. While the impeachment may not move past the Senate, the scandalous stories coming out of this impeachment inquiry are much more important to ruining Trump's reputation. Also, although the people that support Trump are vocal, they are a small group. To respond to the previous comments that mention that Trump can potentially beat out the Democratic candidate in the next election, I think that the chances of that happening are very slim. The behavior he exhibits in these scandals holds a different importance to nationalistic and patriotic citizens; by pursuing a personal agenda in international relations, Trump threatens the integrity of America, an idea that nationalistic voters of Trump would most likely not agree with. Thus, the pool of Trump supporters is growing smaller with each investigation, heading in the direction of Trump not winning the next election.
Regardless of anything, all these claims towards Trump are drastically affecting his supporters. As you stated, 40% of women originally supported Trump, but now, are completely for impeachment. Like previously stated, Trump actually winning this upcoming election is very slim. He has good competition with various democratic candidates that are hungry. In addition, Trump is a hypocrite because he often says things out of perspective. So many Americans are finally realizing his potential is no longer (and never was). I believe the claims towards Trump will ultimately ruin his reputation as a "good" President and he will not win the upcoming election.
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