Photo: From NPR, Senator majority leader Mitch McConnell is very happy tonight
Just a few hours ago, the Senate passed the massive tax bill. As there are numerous blog posts about the bill, it is a $1.4 trillion tax overhaul - the biggest since Ronald Reagan, with tax cuts on businesses and most of the middle class. They believe that the money lost from the tax cuts will be compensated with economic stimulus, as with more money for the middle class, they can spend more on goods and services, thus helping grow the economy. The vote passed by a narrow margin, 51-49, with only one Republican, Senator Bob Corker of Tennessee, that voted against it with all Democrats voting Nay.
Now, likely the Senate will have to merge its revisions and agree upon a final version with the House version of the bill, since it has differences. However, once the final version is agreed upon, both the House and the Senate will vote on it before sending it to the President, giving the Democrats one last chance to stop the bill.
For Republicans, this is a major legislative victory, as they seemed to struggle to fulfill their campaign promises in many areas, such as the stalled health care reform. Additionally, it is one of the first major promises Trump had that was enacted. Republicans had to make many last minute revisions in the end in order to appease interest groups and other Republican holdouts, kind of like in the documentary we saw in class.
What do you think this means for the Trump administration?
What is your view about this bill?
For me, I believe that while Americans will loose a lot of funding for services due to the lack of money that the federal income tax raises for the government, this bill may end up working out, considering that its goal is to provide people and businesses the ability to spend more money on goods and services, thus helping the economy more. Ultimately, this will outweigh the other costs and negatives of the bill
Lastly, what could the Democrats do, other than filibustering of course, to prevent this bill from passing?
Links:
NY Times
NPR
BBC
ABC News
12 comments:
This is a major win for the Trump campaign. This bill could be something that Trump rides to have a somewhat decent first year as president. The tax bill has not only fulfilled promises to the republican voters but also strips away the Obamacare mandate. The clause stipulates that it is no longer mandatory to buy Obamacare, an idea that has been pushed very hard in the republican camp.
One major way to block this bill would be to win the Florida Senate race. If incumbent Bill Nelson squanders his lead to newcomer Rick Scott, the vote could be tied. However, they would also need to convince one more member of the republican senate, as a tied vote would lead to Mike Pence passing the bill in his vote. Right now it would be a tall order to block this bill, as the Democrats would need to earn two votes.
I agree with all of Sid's points here. I think this is surely a victory for the Republicans and Trump, as it deals with two large campaign promises by Trump (and overall Conservative goals). I don't see the Democrats overturning it at all, and it is pretty much guaranteed to pass at this point and be the "Christmas gift" Trump planned.
I think what is interesting here is that for a lot of people, the fact that the AMT was not overturned in the Senate version means that there won't be that much decrease in taxes for the rich, which could be seen as unfortunate. There is a big benefit for corporations, which should help keep businesses operating in the U.S. The obvious downside to the bill is the possible burden to the national debt (Bob Corker is particularly outspoken about this). It is hard to determine the actual numbers now, but perhaps he has a point.
What strikes me as very interesting in this news report was that the Senate vote was incredibly narrow and polarized, 51-49, with all Democrats voting "nay". It is a textbook-perfect illustration of the polarization of politics over the most recent decades, due to the disappearance of more conservative Democrats and more liberal Republicans. The Democrats will actually not be able to filibuster this bill, since they have already lost their only chance to do so in the Senate. I predict that the tax reform bill will likely also pass the House, since Republicans have a majority (240-194) in that house of Congress as well.
I truly believe that what we are watching here, right now, will go down in American history, much like Obama's successful first expansion of health care to all Americans. Much as Reaganomics were carefully studied, along with their subsequent effects on the American economy, I believe Trump's economic policies will be scrutinized for decades if not centuries to come as a move which echoes those of former conservative presidents. It will be interesting to experiment with the trickle-down theory of economics over the next few years to see what happens. If it works poorly, Trump will likely not be a well-favored candidate in the 2020 election.
I agree with Frank's comparison to Obama's Affordable Care Act and Trump's tax bill. There is little Democrats can do to stop the bill at this point, considering that it has passed both chambers of Congress (I believe it has), and their options for leverage in a conference committee are few and numbered. For the Democrats, this bill will be a huge loss, and the conference committee is the only opportunity for them to weaken the effects of the bill.
Unlike Obama, Trump did not run on the promise of bipartisanship, nor did he campaign to unite Republicans. However, this bill, while extremely partisan and (as Frank mentioned) extremely polarized, stands to bring Congressional Republicans together after major fractures over healthcare. Do you guys think this bill will unify Republicans on other issues? And what position will the Democrats be in, politically, after this major loss?
I am disappointed by the fashion in which this bill was pushed through, but it is a classic case of pork-barrel politicking. For those who aren't aware, the main reason that the bill got passed in the first place is because Lisa Murkowski, an Alaska senator who was the 51st vote, made a deal with Republican party leadership allowing for oil drilling in the Arctic wildlife reserve. Once that provision was added to the bill, Murkowski was happy to jump aboard with the GOPs tax plan. Opening drilling in the arctic wildlife reserve will bring billions of dollars in revenues to Alaska at great environmental expense. Well-testing and drilling bring the potential for major oil spills and increased seismic activity, which can and most likely will disrupt the migrational and breeding patterns of certain forms of wildlife.
The democrats are a minority, so it will take some significant pressuring on external issues for this bill to be shot down after the conference committee.
Overall, of all of the aspects of this new conservative title wave of politics we are experiencing, its effects on the environment concern me most, as many big corporations and fossil-fuel interests are successfully infiltrating government with their deep pockets.
tidal* I can spell I promise
As other commenters have suggested, the passage of this bill was certainly a much needed victory for the GOP, but I'm wary to call it a victory for the American people. In their scramble to pass the bill in the Senate, with their paper thin majority, the Republican leadership prioritized what a few key Senators and blocks of Senators wanted caring more about passing the bill than the bill itself, tacking on whatever was necessary for that all important victory, regardless of how tangential any of it was. Murkowski got her drilling, Flake got his reinforcement of DACA, and deficit hawks got a variety of alterations. When stripped of these various additions, the tax plan is, unsurprisingly, a reverberation, an echo of good old Reaganomics; "lower the corporate tax, and everybody wins." If this beloved Republican mantra proves to be false, there will be a reckoning in 2018 and 2020.
If the Republicans get this passed it is a major win for them, the top 1%, and no one else. The rest of America should probably try and get a Canadian citizenship because this bill would increases taxes for ⅔ of the middle class. I found it shifty that the Senate did not allow the senators to reconvene at a later time in order to give them time to read the bible looking bill. We basically passed a bill that was not thoroughly read and understood by our Senators. They were amending the already handwritten amendments to the point that it was barely legible. This all reveals how desperate the Republicans are to pass a Republican bill, more than an actual passion and motive to reform the tax issue in the United States. If businesses already weren’t loaded with money, this bill would cut down corporation tax by 20% which is the most drastic tax cut it has ever been. This bill also eliminates a whole bunch of deductions that harms the majority of the middle and lower class, including tax preparation expenses, losses from casualties, and moving expenses. The individual mandate proposed under Obamacare would be repealed as well, along with the weird permission to drill in Alaska’s ANWR, making it legal to drill for oil and gas companies. I’m not sure what percentage of the GOP really believe that climate change is nonexistent, but we’re not in 1925 with the Scopes Monkey Trial. Science is a thing, and it has proven an increase in our global climate, so rather than continuing to deplete our resources we should preserve our wildlife. Also, what does Alaska have to do with taxes? People might argue that this could benefit families who see deductions, but only until 2026 when their taxes will start to go up again. So imagine graduating graduate school, struggling to get a job and worrying about how you are going to pay off your debt, and now, thanks to this bill, your taxes too.
The GOP needed a victory in the first year in order to appease their rich donors who were growing impatient from the lack of any success in the government. Finally, the Senate passed the tax reform bill, a major victory for the Republican party. However, this process is not over as another vote is needed on the revised version of the conference committee.
Personally, I find this bill only helps the rich elite due to the donors of the GOP having a huge stake in this political party. The GOP must somehow make the donors satisfied, and lessening taxes for these rich elites would be beneficial towards them and the Republican party as it would receive more money. The democrats, being a minority in Congress, would have to somehow persuade two more Republicans in the Senate in order for this bill to die. If not, then they would have to rely on the Supreme Court to find a flaw and shut down the bill.
From what I've read about the new tax plan will only help out the wealthy and not the middle class and even less the lower class who will be struggling to keep up with payments. I hope they don't pass the bill because it would be a horrible move to implement these tax reforms on the public. I don't think their plan about these taxes stimulating the economy will work and it will make things worse for the majority of people.
I agree with Cameron. I feel that Republicans in the Congress and the Trump administration are so desperate to prove that they can make significant reform that they didn’t seem to care much about the bill content other than it is a Republican bill. Trump promised to cut taxes for middle class and “not to the highest earners, it’s a middle class bill,” yet the upper earners are clearly the biggest winners with this bill. Trump said himself that if high earner incomes have to go up, they will, yet this bill allows 1.4 trillion in debt over 10 years.
The logic of this bill, cutting taxes for large corporations, is based on the idea of trickle down economics. The hope would be that increased money for companies would eventually help the middle and lower classes. However, the reality does not seem to be in favor of working class people. Additionally, this tax plan would grow the countries deficit tremendously, which Trump originally said he strongly opposed. This bill is poorly thought out and just seems like the Republicans are desperate to have a win after the Healthcare issue.
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