A huge achievement for the Republican Tax Bill was accomplished today as the Senate's budget committee voted to pass the 1.5 trillion dollar tax package. This instance allows the bill to potentially get a full senate vote during the week. Backtracking towards how the bill was recoginzed, President Trump went down to Captiol Hill earlier this week to lunch with some Republicans claiming, "I think we're going to get it passed". This meeting seemed to push many of the committe members firmly on Trumps side as it was accepted in a party-line vote. The Senate begins procedural motion to begin consideration of the bill Wednesday, and if that passes, it can begin debating and amending parts of the package by Friday. However, this victory isn't fool-proof and the Senate has a long way to go before this bill can claim any real victory.
Questions:
1. Do you think that the bill can/will go any farther than the Senate?
2. If it does move on, and since there are still issues that need to be resolved between the House and the Senate, what are your thoughts on how it will go then?
5 comments:
I think that the bill will not go past the Senate because if it does, the Republicans will lose a lot of public opinion. This kind of action will ultimately negatively affect the Republicans. The bill has a huge impact on household earnings of less than 30,000 dollars. It will evidently increase the amount of tax they have to pay. Greatly taxing the poor is not a wise decision. If the bill does pass, I am confident that in the future, less people will vote for Republicans
I respectfully disagree with Stephen. Republicans have campaigned on the theory of "trickle-down" economics: the tax cuts for corporations would lead to wealth in lower classes through wage increases. However, Stephen is correct in stating that the tax reform would increase taxes on the lower and middle class.
As for issues, I take the most issue with the increase in military spending (that I predict) this year AND the massive tax cuts. Reagan attempted tax cuts, but his increase in military spending caused a massive deficit in government spending. In order to successfully institute a tax cut, the government has to cut its spending. I suppose that's what it's trying to do with the health care bill, and cutting other social welfare programs would help in managing budget deficit. But the most impact would come from cutting the military budget, which is not a popular opinion.
Even though this bill was passed out of committee, there is no assurance that the full Senate will pass this bill. First, there is a group of Senators who are against raising the deficit. They believe in small government and will likely oppose anything that will increase spending because they consider it irresponsible. Another group of senators have voiced objection to the inclusion of repealing some parts of Obamacare because it would leave millions uninsured. The Republicans can only afford to lose 2 senators, so unless the bill can work out compromises that satisfy the senators or get some Democrats on their side, this bill will likely fail, giving Trump another defeat.
The current senate majority is one that teeters on the edge of the blade. Every time a bill enters full session in the senate, the Republicans can only afford three holdouts or dissenting votes (yes, three, unlike what Natalie says-the Republicans can deal with a 50-50 split, because of the VPOTUS's tiebreaker). As of the time of this writing, there are 9 holdouts. This is bad for republicans, because unless the republicans can change the minds of at least 6 senators-something very hard to do-the bill dies.
As for what I personally believe? Look, taxation=bad. Taxation=theft. Taxation is literally what happens when the police themselves mug you. Yeah, taxation is needed so the government can be the government, but if I really believe that something is in my interest, then I'll pay for those things myself without cohersion from the government. In theory, I'd love these tax cuts. However...these aren't the specific tax cuts I like. The idea tax cut bill wouldn't happen without balancing the budget (that's right, Mr. President-we spend more on our defense then the next 10 countries combined, 7 of those 10 are allies. Calm down and slash the DoD budget.) The ideal tax cut would trickle down-but I'd slash corporate taxes, so that companies can best benefit their workers and consumers. The ideal tax cut would hand out tons of tax credits to the middle and lower class tax brackets. However, the ideal tax cut would most certainly NOT raise taxes for the middle and lower classes while at the same time giving tax credits to the 1%.
And look, this isn't about the rich paying their 'fare share,' that's literally the whole idea behind the left-wing economic theories like socialism-and we all know how that ends for everyone involved. It's about the fact that economic growth doesn't happen among the rich, because there's no room for the rich to economically grow, unlike the middle and working classes. And, Mr. President, keep in mind that this is not Paul Ryan's baby. This is not Mitch Mconnell's baby. This isn't even Rand 'daddy' Paul's baby. This is your baby. Your baby, Mr. President. This is "Tax Cuts and Jobs Act" Trump, sixth child of Donald Trump. And you told us on the campaign trail about "tax relief for middle class Americans" and how your rich New York friends wouldn't mind "paying more taxes." And now you give us this smoking dumpster fire of a bill. #thankstrump
As we saw tonight with the vote delay, keeping the Republican senators is happy with this bill is very difficult. Also, as Granger explained, the current Senate majority "teeters on the edge of a blade" with a space of only 3 dissenting votes. While there a lot of things driving this bill to a "yes" vote (mostly just the push to get some kind of tax "reform" legislation passed) there is a lot driving this bill to a "no" vote - especially important is how massively unpopular this bill is and the fact that if it is passed, Democrats will have a good deal of ammunition against the Republicans in the 2018 election.
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