With the 2024 presidential election between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump shaping up to be a tight contest, Republicans are strategizing ways to gain an advantage in the crucial weeks leading up to November. In order to win the presidency, a candidate must secure a majority of electoral votes—270 to be exact—rather than winning the national popular vote. While most states are predictable in their party loyalty, a handful of swing states are expected to be the battlegrounds that decide the election.
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| Breakdown of Nebraska's electoral votes in the 2020 presidential election |
If Harris can secure the states where she is projected to win, including the key swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania—where she currently leads in polling—she will likely reach the 270 electoral votes required for victory. This outlook has shaken Republicans, who are scrambling to find ways to alter the election dynamics in their favor.
Nebraska, a predominantly Republican state, has a unique electoral system. Unlike most states, which award all electoral votes to the statewide winner, Nebraska divides its votes by districts. Two of its five electoral votes go to the statewide winner, while the remaining three are allocated based on the outcomes in each of the state’s three congressional districts. In 2020, although Trump won Nebraska by 19 points overall, Biden carried the state’s 2nd Congressional District, which includes Omaha, by 6.5 points. With the race expected to be so close, even a single electoral vote, like the one from Nebraska’s 2nd District, could be pivotal.
If Republicans succeed in changing Nebraska's system to a statewide winner-takes-all model, Harris could be left with just 269 electoral votes, forcing her to seek additional support in other swing states such as Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Georgia.
Although Republicans hold a majority in Nebraska's legislature and Governor Jim Pillen supports the proposed change to the electoral system, they are currently short of the 33-vote supermajority required to pass the law. Several legislators, especially those representing the 2nd District, are wary of the potential backlash from their constituents, who would lose influence under the proposed changes. One of the key holdouts is Mike McDonnell, a former Democrat who switched parties and now serves as a Republican. McDonnell has publicly committed to preserving Nebraska's current system, though his administration has hinted he could still be persuaded to reconsider.
Top Republican figures, including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and former President Donald Trump, have been personally lobbying Nebraska legislators. McConnell recently visited the governor’s mansion, stating, "I want the law changed. I’ve made no qualms about it." Trump, too, has reached out by phone to stress the importance of the proposed changes. While it remains unclear how successful these efforts will be, Democrats are bracing for the possibility that the Republicans could pull off a last-minute electoral shift.
Republicans are trying to take advantage of the US's representative democracy system, outlined by the founding fathers in the Constitution. Since US elections aren't representative of the people's opinions, but rather of the electoral votes, adjusting the electoral college can change the outcome of the election. Republicans are trying to change policies surrounding election processes to gain more political power.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/09/20/nebraska-electoral-college-trump-omaha/
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/09/20/trump-nebraska-legislature-electoral-vote/75312622007/
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/sep/21/republicans-nebraska-trump-electoral-college
3 comments:
Although there is support behind the movement to change the Electoral college functioning in Nebraska- I don't think it is likely to happen in an election year, especially one as significant, and historic as the 2024 election ticket and circumstances. To get this major of a change--which would effect EVERY election coming forward, within 40-45 days of the date ballots are due is highly unlikely due to the process of changing a law that has successfully been in place for decades. Additionally, earlier this morning, a key republican figure in Nebraska's political scene, has spoken out against the change of this law- continuing the opposition to said wishes, and the stagnation of the amendment. I do think this brings up an important component of the electoral college however, as with the variation in laws state by state, just how volatile are swing states for candidates? Does/should a politician base their campaigning on certain locations in which the demographic already benefits them if broken into districts?
Maine also follows a Congressional District Method rather than a winner-take-all system. Much like in Nebraska, Maine gives two electoral votes for the statewide popular vote and then one vote for each of its two congressional districts. In this case, I understand the appeal of Nebraska as it leans Republican (while Maine tends to favor Democrats), but would a change to Nebraska's electoral system prompt a change to Maine's? Interestingly, even though changing Maine's system would likely benefit Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party, they aren’t pushing for it. This contrast highlights the differing approaches of the Republican and Democratic parties.
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