Last Saturday, Taiwanese voters elected Lai Ching-te, the current vice president, as president of Taiwan. This election marks the third consecutive win for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) — even amid threats from China, who has declared the DPP to be a separatist force and warned Taiwanese voters about the possible consequences of electing another member of the party. Almost counterintuitively, it's possible that these threats have increased anti-China sentiment within Taiwan, and possibly increased public support for Lai himself.
Lai's platform essentially consisted of promises to preserve the status quo, a message that appealed to voters who want to maintain diplomatic relations with China while remaining neither formally independent nor fully part of China. Additionally, voters seemed to value his experience as vice president, and the DPP's experience preserving diplomatic relations for the past two terms — Lai obtained over 40% of the vote in a 3 way race against members of the Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People's Party (TPP), while runner-up Hou You-ih followed with approximately 33%.
The consequences of this controversial election are still up in the air. Some predict that Beijing will raise their pressure on Taiwan, increasing economic sanctions or making "an intimidating show of force through military exercises and gray zone security maneuvers" (Atlantic Council). Others note China's continued attempts to influence the beliefs of the Taiwanese public: China has reportedly purchased targeted ads through Facebook (the platform is banned in China but highly popular in Taiwan) that portray Lai as puppet of the US whose presidency will surely lead to war. President Biden himself has directly stated that the US does not support independence for Taiwan, and so far, all signs point to staying with the status quo.
Taiwan's voting system differs in many ways from the US voting system as we learned about in class. Primarily, Taiwan uses popular vote instead of the electoral college to calculate the presidential winner (likely making outcomes less controversial) and doesn't require that the presidential-elect receive over 50% of the vote (possibly making outcomes more controversial).
Links:
https://time.com/6555224/taiwan-new-president-lai-ching-te-bio-history/
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/experts-react/experts-react-taiwan-just-elected-lai-ching-te-as-president-despite-chinas-opposition-whats-next/#:~:text=However%2C%20Lai%20won%20with%2040,easing%20of%20tension%20with%20China.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/25/metas-advertising-rebound-gets-huge-assist-from-china-despite-ban.html#:~:text=That%20means%20Chinese%20companies%20are,of%20users%20around%20the%20world.
4 comments:
The issue of China-Taiwan has been a long standing issue since 1949 when the KMT party fled to what is now Taiwan. Nowadays, the KMT has lost power (as seen by Lai's election who's backed by the DPP). But, the KMT and with it the older generations of Taiwanese believe that there really is only one China that encompasses both mainland and Taiwan. The real issue is who is the true, legitimate, authorized ruling party? Here is where the disagreement USED TO lie.
It seems that the newer generation of Taiwanese believe in a true separation from the Chinese mainland and personally I'm inclined to believe that Lai holds similar beliefs. The whole "maintain diplomatic relations but not be formally independent but not full apart of China" sounds too vague to be much of a concrete promise of anything. There's no denying China holds much power in the international scene, so it would make sense to not cut all ties and risk a full on war between the two countries. Doing so would not only risk Taiwan, but could also risk dragging the US into the Eastern world. Yet, it also seems as if Lai's true intentions really are just to separate Taiwan as much as possible.
I agree with Chin-Yi that Taiwan is vaguely announcing its independence from China, but in reality, it still relies on China’s economic support. China is actively pursuing the goal of reunification with Taiwan, based on the "One China" principle, which considers Taiwan as part of China. However, Taiwan has not been honest about its reliance on China for economic stability. The agreements between Taiwan's Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) and China's Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS) have been resumed in 2008. This agreement serves as a key communication to promote China and Taiwan’s economic trade and reduce trade barriers, but it was limited in 2015. I personally think both countries could benefit each other and become stronger by improving their cross-strait relations to engage in common ground, share mutual interests, and find ways to work more effectively.
I disagree with Sarah. I don't think that Taiwan and China could mutually benefit each other if China takes over, especially after what happened in Hong Kong. Hong Kong wanted to take autonomy, or at least have some sort of independence, so they protested against the mainland government. Look what happened: all the top-dog officials in Hong Kong are pro-China, and whoever speaks out against that pro-China sentiment "disappears". If China takes over Taiwan under the "One China" principle, the same will likely happen. Taiwan will slowly lose independence, and then turn into another part of the Chinese government. And although China is Taiwan's greatest trade partner, I'm not sure how Taiwan's trade internationally will be affected if China takes over. Also, recently China has been sending warplanes and ships near Taiwan, which in my opinion isn't the friendliest way to "promote economic trade".
I agree with Sean. I think that Taiwan folding to Chinas "One China" principal would lead to the collapse of the country. I actually find it very interesting that Taiwanese people don't want further separation from China after the Hong Kong incident. The fact that Taiwanese people just want to "keep the status quo" shows that they do not want the violence that China is threatening. They want independence in name but aren't seeking recognition from China. However this keeping of "status quo" isn't really showing as they conduct numerous military drills that seem "threatening" to China. While Taiwan DOES want independence, provoking China (even with US support) will not end well for either party.
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