As of December 5 2023, Super-PAC American Values 2024 announced that they will spend over $10 million dollars to get independent Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on the ballot.
Based on the chapter 9.3 textbook reading, "Government in America" by Edwards and Wattenberg, a Political Action Group (PAC) raises money from individual donors and is then distributed in the form of contributions of which the group supports. Well what makes a Super PAC different from a regular PAC? Super PACS are Independent-expenditures only, which means that they can accept limitless donations and donate to groups that express viewpoints that may aid a specific campaign. They also have the ability to endorse candidates. Therefore, the American Values 2024 Super PAC will be donating to groups that will make sure RFK Jr. gets on the presidential ballot, and being able to accept limitless donations means they can spend as much as they want on these groups to make it happen.
In October, RFK Jr. announced that he would be dropping as a Democrat presidential candidate, and instead seek the presidency as an Independent. His argument for dropping the Democratic Party and seeking a third-party is because he believes the democratic candidacy is rigged against him. Despite understanding that no Independent candidate has won the presidency in modern history, RFK Jr. knows that he will be a spoiler for both Republican former President Donald J. Trump, and incumbent President Joseph R. Biden Jr.: "I intend to spoil the both of them." (ABC)
What begs the question is whether RFK Jr. is going to siphon more votes from Donald Trump or Joe Biden in a three-way presidential race, tilting the win to one of them. I believe that we will see similar repeat of history from the 2016 election in Joe Biden, where Jill Stein, a Green party candidate, was a likely factor to cause Hillary Clinton from losing the electoral votes needed in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Despite winning the popular vote by 2 million, Hillary Clinton was not able to win key electoral votes to reach the 270 electoral majority to win the presidency.
So what do you think? Many sources on the discussion are stating that Joe Biden is likely to lose as Democrat voters may pander to RFK jr. as a more favorable, more capable leader. While others say that his anti-vaxx ideology may appeal to the MAGA base of Donald Trump. Others state that it is just too difficult to predict where voters will swing to.
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7 comments:
Adding this third variable to the election may make outcomes more unpredictable. Unless he expects his candidature to favor one party, he seems to be campaigning in bad faith.
I'm doubtful Republicans will vote for him since he came from the Democratic party, even if he shares some typically Republican views. My impression is that Republican loyalty to Trump is stronger than the Democrats' loyalty to Biden, so more Democrats will be likely to switch their vote to RFK if they feel disillusioned by the election system. I would predict this candidature will favor Trump, but variables might change before election day, so nothing is for certain.
If he draws away votes in the same way Jill Stein did for Hillary Clinton, it will likely lead to the same type of disparity between the popular vote and the electoral college. Having a candidate who does not seek election and instead siphons votes in the general election does not very democratic to me. If RFK expects he will siphon votes from both parties, what is the point of running and spending so much money on his campaign? If votes are divided during the general election, we might not be electing the most favorable president. In general, I'm tired of hearing about shady political maneuvering. In my opinion, these types of manipulations only add complication and discontent to the election process.
Understanding the fact that independent presidential candidates have almost no chance to win, with RKF Jr. himself stating that it was his goal to simply "spoil" both of them, it does beg the question, why would a Super PAC willingly contribute millions of dollars to get a candidate on the ballot that they know isn't running to win? Because this Super PAC, American Values, clearly believes that RJK Jr.'s candidacy will siphon more votes from the Democratic candidate (Joe Biden) than the Republican candidate (Donald Trump), ultimately benefiting the Republican Party. The American Values Super PAC lists themselves as Republican/Conservatively oriented, so it seems pretty clear that this is their intention. Having withdrawn from the Democratic party, RFK Jr. must also know that his campaign will inevitably attract more attention from Democratic voters, and will disadvantage Joe Biden; this does beg the question, why would RFK Jr. want to purposefully stunt Joe Biden's election? Does RFK Jr. stand to benefit from the Republican party successfully taking the presidential election?
Link to the Hawaii Tribune article which sources American Values as the Super PAC which gave RFK Jr. the $10 million contribution
The link to the PAC profile page which categorizes American Values as Republican/conservative
I think you're right that RFK Jr.'s decision to run as an independent rather than a Democrat signals he aims to draw support from both parties' bases, not just Democrats. His name recognition and family legacy likely appeal to some traditional Democratic voters. However, his controversial views on vaccines and stances on civil liberties could also attract libertarian-leaning and far-right Republicans.
It's difficult to predict exactly where he'll pull the most votes from, as you noted. Jill Stein's candidacy in 2016 and Ralph Nader's in 2000 do show third-party contenders can swing key states. RFK Jr. seems to relish playing this spoiler role.
If the race tightens, even a 2-3% siphon of votes from either Trump or Biden in swing states could tilt the election. It'll be interesting to see if RFK Jr.'s campaign gains momentum once people start voting. Without a party apparatus behind him, an outside PAC spending big on his behalf could be a game changer.
I suppose one wild card is whether RFK Jr. ends up included in or excluded from general election debates alongside Trump and Biden. If he makes the stage, it could further legitimize him as a contender in voters' minds. But you're right, history suggests even long shot independent bids can have major consequences.
I agree with previous commenters about how RFK Jr. is almost definitely not going to win the election, but rather is just there to disrupt votes, and I think that this is a very likely possibility. A recent Quinnipiac University poll (linked below) put RFK Jr. at 22% support from registered voters across the US (with Biden at 39% and Trump at 36%). This is a huge amount considering his status as an Independent, and I believe that he is one of the few independents in history to get this much support, which means that he could definitely play a big disruptive role in the election to come.
The states that American Values is trying to get RFK Jr. on the ballot for add up to 210 Electoral College votes -- which, as we learned in class, is less than the 270 votes necessary to win the election. So, unless they plan to get him onto more ballots, this is further evidence that he doesn't actually care about winning the election. What's interesting is that these states include California, which I would assume he has very little chance of winning giving our historic support of the Democratic candidate, and New York, which has also been a very solidly blue state, alongside a couple of historically red as well as swing states.
https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3881
I really like what Evan said about RFK’s intentions with his campaign. Put simply, it’s clear that he’s not winning the election. Trump has a huge fan base and an insane amount of support, and Biden has the incumbent advantage. As are many other candidates’ campaigns, the RFK presidential campaign’s objective is not to become president, so it must be something else. Building on Evan’s point about American Values knowing his extremely low odds at even having a chance at putting up a strong fight against either Trump or Biden, from an outside perspective, it seems as if the only legitimate reason American Values would support RFK is because the organization secretly wants Trump to win. It’s a great strategy! But why wouldn’t they just send their money directly to Trump’s campaign? This makes me feel like there’s a lot going on under the radar that we, as citizens and voters, don’t recognize. And for the people that are smart enough to see it, it only causes confusion and chaos, plus a growing distrust with our government and the political system at large. Maybe this is all assumptions and maybe we’re all jumping to conclusions, but I know that deception in politics almost never ends positively.
I definitely agree with the sentiment that RFK Jr.’s role is more to gather votes rather than be the victor. Like Evan said, American Values being a Republican/conservative group definitely raises questions about their intentions behind the funding. Some of RFK Jr.’s beliefs, such as his criticism of the political economy, favoring smaller business over megacorps, and distaste towards war, certainly seem capable of enticing Democratic voters. However, his views regarding vaccines and abortions, which are two major topics many Democrats may feel strong disagreement towards, could also push them away. In fact, according to Democrat Michael Starr Hopkins, RFK Jr. “dressing up” as a Democrat is “just lipstick on a pig”. (https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4152174-rfk-jr-s-abortion-remarks-spark-fresh-democratic-outrage/)
In this upcoming election, tens of millions of youth become eligible to vote. The percentage of registered Republican voters is far less than that of registered Democrat voters, and donors may be trying to capitalize on the 33.1% of youth voters who identify as independent, hoping to push them towards RFK Jr. and away from Biden. Regarding both young voters and all voters all however, I personally wonder how effective this could really be. The first time I heard of RFK Jr. was not really in the most positive light, since it was regarding his strong anti-vaccine stance and accusations of pushing misinformation.
Young voters: https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/young-peoples-ambivalent-relationship-political-parties
RFK Jr.'s potential: https://time.com/6275997/biden-rfk-jr-2024-primary/
I'm not sure how much of an impact RFK will have on the election. Others have mentioned how they predict that his goal in running is simply to disrupt votes or draw support from both parties, however, noting that independents and third-party candidates rarely receive media attention (this is one of the few articles I have ever read about RFK), I think it's unlikely that he's going to redirect votes that much in the general election. That being said, every year is different, and given the increasingly polarized state of politics, a notable independent candidate might help, like Annie said, 2024's youth voters and new voters find a voice in politics.
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