What Happened?
On Wednesday, September 27th, seven Republican candidates participated in the second GOP Primary Debate, and much to the surprise of everybody (I say sarcastically), the showing was a mess. The "debate" was held at Reagan Library in Simi Valley, California, and moderated by Fox News host Dana Perino and Fox Business Network host Stuart Varney. In brief, the candidates constantly spoke over each other, confused the audience, and, most importantly, failed to fully discuss the most significant issue of the night: Trump. In the first debate, Vivek Ramaswamy and Nikki Haley seemed to be the ones who gained the most support and momentum in the polls, but after the second night, only one of them could capitalize, while the other fell harshly.
Who Won?
Even though the former President was absent from the first and second primary debates, he still remains wildly ahead of the other candidates in the Republican polls. As of September 29th, Trump is in the lead with 55.1% of the votes, Desantis in a close second with a measly 13.5%, and Ramaswamy and Haley with around 6.5% each. There is simply no competition, and in a debate where the candidates failed to attack Trump's vulnerabilities, little progress has been made. The way it looks now, it seems like Trump will be the GOP nominee in the upcoming general election. Aside from Trump, Haley succeeded in maintaining some of the traction she gained from the first primary debate, even though her results were slightly worse. Unlike many of the other candidates, she was actually able to construct some semi-legitimate answers to the moderators' questions regarding topics like the United Auto Workers strike and healthcare. She even took shots at Ramaswamy and became viral on social media by saying, "Honestly, every time I hear you, I feel a little bit dumber for what you say" (Washington Post). To many, Haley seems like a serious candidate capable of overtaking Desantis in the polls, but even then, it seems unlikely.
(Image Credit: CNN)
Who Lost?
As for the losers, Ramaswamy and Desantis failed to stand out from the rest. After the first debate, Ramaswamy came out with lots of media buzz, but unfortunately, he could not grow it. During the second debate, a handful of the candidates targeted him for his lack of experience in foreign policy, and Ramaswamy struggled to fight back. In addition, he failed to make any memorable responses to the moderator's questions. If he does not change his strategy soon, he will not gain any more votes in the polls.
Throughout the year, Desantis's support has quickly declined, and even after the second debate, struggled to gain any rise. At the beginning of the year, his percentage in the polls was actually very close to Trump's, standing at a high 37.3%, but this number has seen a stark drop. Desantis had no significant moments and fell short, causing him to become a non-factor in this already lopsided political race.
Why Care?
Wednesday night's debate saw the lowest viewership T.V. viewership since 2015, meaning that Republican voters felt no need to tune in to the arguments of the GOP candidates as they knew that Trump would eventually be the nominee. On another note, this recent debate highlights the GOP's many problems. The fact that this party's politicians struggled to create a formal and cohesive discussion with each other and instead engaged in a shouting competition unveils a profound lack of professionalism.
Course Connection:
The most recent topic covered in class was public opinion, and what greater connection is there to this idea than elections and debates? According to V.O. Key, public opinion is "those opinions held by private persons that public officials find prudent to heed" (Key). Examples of this idea occurring in the second debate include the questions about the autoworkers' strike and how the candidates will deal with the situation. Even though none of the candidates sided with the United Auto Workers strike, some carefully constructed their rhetoric in their responses, revealing how the GOP is wary of offending the workers. This approach is mainly because politicians care about votes; losing them is the biggest concern.
- Zen Yoshikawa
Bibliography:
“5 Takeaways from Last Night’s Republican Presidential Debate.” Los Angeles Times, Los Angeles Times, 28 Sept. 2023, www.latimes.com/politics/story/2023-09-28/takeaways-gops-second-debate-reagan-library.
Blake, Aaron. “Analysis | the Winners and Losers of the Second Republican Debate.” The Washington Post, WP Company, 28 Sept. 2023, www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/09/27/who-won-republican-debate/.
Clement, Scott, et al. “Our Republican Debate Poll Shows a Largely Unchanged Race.” The Washington Post, WP Company, 29 Sept. 2023, www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/09/28/poll-republican-presidential-debate/.
Prokop, Andrew. “1 Winner and 3 Losers from Fox’s Dud of a Second GOP Debate.” Vox, Vox, 28 Sept. 2023, www.vox.com/2024-elections/2023/9/27/23893654/republican-debate-second-winners-losers-vivek-ramaswamy-fox-news.
Ryan Best, Aaron Bycoffe. “National : President: Republican Primary : 2024 Polls.” FiveThirtyEight, 29 Sept. 2023, projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/.
Second GOP Presidential Primary Debate Drops to 9.5M Viewers, www.axios.com/2023/09/29/republican-second-debate-viewers-fox-2024. Accessed 1 Oct. 2023.
“Second Republican Primary Debate Had the Lowest TV Viewership since 2015.” NBCNews.Com, NBCUniversal News Group, 28 Sept. 2023, www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/meetthepressblog/second-republican-primary-debate-lowest-tv-viewership-2015-rcna117955.
5 comments:
I know that many of you are staunchly opposed to the Republican party, but if you had to pick a candidate out of those in the running this year, who would it be? Take this question as more of a "who is the least bad" type of question rather than one that asks if you actually like any of them.
I think your question as to "who is the least bad" is really interesting because I think the GOP is now starting to show a noticeable shift out of the Trumpist/Only-Trump camp and start to support newer candidates that diverge from or criticize Trump's policy. Some of these candidates are Terrible (Ramaswamy) and some are less so (largely Haley, who I think is at least the most sensible GOP- connected candidate and doesn't seem to be afraid to criticize the republican establishment and it's rhetoric.) Do you think that this shift away from Trumpism will be a growing/permanent one within the GOP, or do you think that he or some future derivative of him will still be prominent? I know he's still overwhelmingly in the lead but that could very well be a case of him being attached to the party due to his prominence rather than a specific support for his set of policies.
I find it quite scary that Trump has such strong support as a Republican candidate. Despite his numerous indictments, Trump is not disqualified from running for president. This is because the Constitution apparently does not prohibit criminals from becoming president. I think that a Trump victory could be very dangerous to American democracy. Not only did Trump try to dismiss the results of the election, but he very likely incited an insurrection against the US government. Evidently, Trump is willing to do essentially whatever it takes to gain or keep power, including disregarding the very principles of American democracy. I hope that one of the more reasonable GOP candidates will be able to step up their game and take the lead, to ensure that whoever wins the office, Republican or Democrat, America's democracy will remain safe.
https://www.nytimes.com/article/trump-investigation-conviction.html
Thank you Zen for outlining the "Who What When" categories! It made it very clear to me what the outcomes of the debate were, in addition to the "Who Cares" section being very informative on the topic of "public opinion" when it comes to younger generations not being as informed on politics/ consuming less media. I find it very interesting the decline in interest in Vivek Ramaswamy since his perceived win in the first debate- such as people attacking him for accepting the Soros Fellowship Fund and how his father is not a citizen of the US. Similarly, despite the attention and time span in these primary debates, I honestly don't think they will matter in the end unless some huge uprisal happens between now and selecting the GOP candidate, the Trump fan base- even with all of his criminal proceedings and lack of real policy talk for the future- will still supercede the others.
As you highlighted in your "Why Care" section, I found it very interesting how the debate saw the lowest T.V. viewership since 2015. It evidently a sign that interest in the race has been at a decline without the presence of Donald Trump. It has appeard as a conflict for TV networks and the Republican National Committee, and especailly television executives, as now it is concerned (with factors as simple as cost) if any significance lies in producing such events.
Espcially, as you said, when considering how there was an immense lack of any formal and cohesive discussion, the question lies to what even these debates mean for the party and their position with the US public. To extend this point, Trump's claims on this situation are very interesting. Expressing his dislike towards the clear unproffesional enviornment of these debates, he chooses not to participate not only because of his large lead, but as he believes he does not need to spend time being "harrassed" by those "who shouldn't even be running for president." He does not want to engage with lower polling candidates, and believes focus should be on "defeating President Biden." Like most, I simply believe these debates will not prove to matter much at all.
Sources:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/28/business/media/republican-debate-ratings.html
https://www.forbes.com/sites/antoniopequenoiv/2023/09/20/trump-skipping-third-gop-debate-after-snubbing-first-two-report-says/
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