The Russian-Ukraine War and competition against China for influence in Asia has become the center of foreign policy news. With sanctions put in place, the war has prompted China and Russia to form a closer relationship, and the U.S is faced with a challenge to deter further aggression while maintaining peace.
The U.S Warns Against North Korean Aid to Russia
Last week, speculations of a meeting between Kim John Un and Vladimir Putin arose regarding a possible arms deal, which would supply Russia with military aid against Ukraine. Kim will likely travel to Vladivostok, but specific details are unknown due to North Korea’s secrecy. In July, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu traveled to Pyongyang to persuade North Korea to sell artillery and discuss joint military exercises. National security advisor Jake Sulliven stated that providing weapons to Russia “is not going to reflect well on North Korea and they will pay the price on this in the international community.” The prices would likely be more economic sanctions, similar to the treatment of China, whom the United States and allies have punished for providing military aid to Russia earlier on. The Kremlin stated last Tuesday it had “nothing to say” about Kim planning to visit Russia.
Is Turning To North Korea A Sign Of Weakness?
Russia’s isolation has increased its dependence on North Korea, and while both Russia and Ukraine are expending massive amounts of ammunition, Ukraine is keeping up with a U.S. led coalition, while Russia has been mostly draining its own supply. Jake Sulliven added, “They are now going about looking for whatever source they can find.” North Korean experts say the partnership would make sense, since North Korea possesses many Soviet-era weapons that are often interchangeable with the Russian equipment.
In another battleground for influence, President Biden visited Vietnam, where he seeks to establish economic relationships against Russia and China. Reuters has seen documents stating Russia would extend to Vietnam to buy weaponry, anti-ship missiles, anti-submarine aircraft and helicopters, and fighter jets. In May, Vietnam’s Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh’s letter in May confirmed possible interest in new deal with Russia.
In this recent visit, U.S national security advisor John Finer stated the U.S is not offering an arms deal, it only aims to provide options for Vietnam to reduce economic dependency on Russia. Furthermore, the U.S hopes to strengthen supply chains for critical minerals needed to manufacture electronics. Vietnam has the largest deposits of rare earth metals after China. Executives from Google, Intel, Marvell, and Boeing are meeting with Vietnamese tech executives this week to discuss possible deals regarding semiconductors. In response, Chinese Foreign Ministry warned U.S, Mao Ning stated: “The U.S should abandon Cold War zero-sum game mentality…not undermine regional peace, stability, and development and prosperity.”
Is Another Cold War Brewing?
Vietnam is seen as part of a strategic partnership to strengthen a network of allies around Southeast Asia to combat China’s rising influence. Biden stated, “China is beginning to change some of the rules of the game, in terms of trade and other issues.” This year, the U.S has put forth efforts to build alliances with India, Australia, Japan, and South Korea. Tensions with China and Russia are higher than ever, and the United States must play its cards right to carefully compete while preserving peace.
-Chris L
https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4188187-us-warns-north-korea-against-supplying-arms-to-russia/
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/10/us-vietnam-upgrade-ties-as-biden-visits-in-hedge-against-china.html
https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/10/politics/g20-summit-india-biden-vietnam-sunday/index.html
8 comments:
I definitely agree that US-Russia relations are deteriorating as the United States supplies great amounts of aid to Ukraine and, as you said, Russia forms closer ties with China and possibly North Korea. Furthermore, the US and China are becoming decreasingly dependent on each other as well, as China has lost its spot as the #1 trading partner of the U.S. to Mexico, and as the BRICS alliance (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) strive to decrease their dependence on the U.S. dollar. I also find it interesting how the U.S. and Russia are "fighting" over Vietnam for advantageous resources. Like the Cold War, it seems like both nations are competing against each other without directly confronting one another. But unlike last time, a lot more subtly, and a lot, lot colder.
I agree that the United States needs to play its card rights to not get more envolved than it already is in this conflict. The US alone has giving more than $75 billion on aid to Ukraine since the Russian-Ukraine started. So the only side that should be worried about how to keep supplies coming is Russia and its understandable why they would turn to North Korea. This isolated contry still has Soviet-era weapons and is also known for having very deadly and advanced weapons. If the US isn't careful to not overstep then another Cold War could potentially start. I think that some type of war could affect more Russia and North Korea becuase the US is working on developing more alliances with different countries and that involves Vietnam, which it could potentially be a upgrade to the US. Also the US is part of NATO, a military allice with 31 countries, although matining international peace could be much better for everyone.
I somewhat disagree with the title/main question of this article which suggests that there is a potential "Cold War." I understand that the strict definition of a cold war is one that isn't directly fought between countries but strategically battled through pseudo-wars, but I think especially in this context, a "Cold War" would imply communist vs. capitalist ties. This is clearly untrue as Russia's economy, while volatile, is a capitalist economy, and they are allying with (correct me if I'm wrong) communist-run China as well as Korea. Contrarily, the US, definitively capitalist, is attempting to ally with communist Vietnam. Thus I don't think it's accurate to label the potential conflict as a "Cold War," as while the countries in play are reminiscent of the old Cold War, the factors and motivations have fundamentally and drastically changed.
-Evan Li
First off, very entertaining read + synthesis of sources. Anyways, it is true that governments are growing more isolated. That said, for the time being there remains extreme inter-country dependence (for all). For example, Chinese tech companies (particularly those center on emerging technologies like AI) rely heavily on the tech produced by European companies like ASML.
I am surprised to see Vietnam's openness to the U.S. as many policy decisions in the past (and the Vietnam war of course) affected Vietnam pretty harshly.
Tangent: I'm also struggling to understand why the U.S is not targeting a friendship with the China. The U.S. stands to lose A LOT if China isolates itself with Russia. In addition, letting China and Russia isolate themselves would mean they continue as they have with 0 U.S input. This would be a serious problem particularly in the battle against climate change in which China and Russia show few (if any) signs of readiness to enact climate change regulation (that affects all of us).
The ever-worsening relationship between the U.S. and Russia is definitely concerning, especially given Russia's clear willingness to take violent action to get what they want. As for partnering with NK, I don't see this as much of a surprise, but I also don't think that such a partnership should be much of a concern for the U.S. I agree that diplomacy with Southern Asian countries are definitely a step in the right direction, especially given the BRICS alliance/China and Russia gaining more global economic power separate from the United States. I predict that the U.S. will slowly lose its global economic dominance over the next decades to Russia/China, regardless of the outcomes of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, or any aide from NK.
I appreciated this article, and the coverage on an array of possible political alliances, it felt very informative. However, I see Russia turning to allies like North Korea as dangerous rather than a sign of weakness. The fact that Russia is desperate for an expanding weapon supply means they're willing to do a lot to stay in the game. I mean, who knows what their next move will be. The unpredictability seems much more ominous than before. Moreover, the "battle for influence" in Vietnam is vaguely reminiscent of the Vietnam war. Yet, this time America has a new approach: through economic ties (https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/11/economy/biden-vietnam-visit-business-ties-intl-hnk/index.html). This could have disastrous consequences for China, a economy that had has a history of being the largest manufacturer of American goods. While such a move benefits the economies of both America and Vietnam, does it not further antagonize China?
Like you said, I think Russia turning to North Korea is a sign of their weakness when considering the invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine has been receiving modern and powerful military equipment from its allies in the west. This includes Bradley Fighting Vehicles, Abrams Tanks, Humvees, Patriot and Avenger air defense systems, and even surveillance and combat drones (CFR). All of this equipment is still in use today by the US, and none of it was introduced any earlier than the year 1980. Yet, the ammunition Russia is buying from Ukraine, which is compatible with its already outdated Soviet-Era weapons, has been shown to be of extremely poor quality, to the point of which it may be a safety hazard to Russian soldiers (Reuters). Russia being willing to accept such low quality equipment, while also facing some of the most powerful weapons systems in the world, suggests to me the greatly weakened state of their military right now, as they are desperate enough to take whatever they can get.
https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-aid-has-us-sent-ukraine-here-are-six-charts
https://www.reuters.com/world/north-korean-ammunition-could-offer-russian-troops-flawed-useful-support-2023-09-12/
Do you think that the formation of different inter-country alliances (i.e BRICS, G7, NATO, arguably even the EU) is allowing for the unhealthy exacerbation for these growing conflicts? While obviously groups like NATO allow for the protection of weaker western-aligned countries, a service that is sorely and deeply needed when one considers the increasingly terrifyingly antagonistic actions of the Russian/Chinese/Arguably Saudi governments, there is also an argument to be had that the expansion of these organizations is the motivating factor behind their antagonistic actions (i.e Russias claim of invading Ukraine in order to stop the spread of NATO influence). How can we reconcile the obvious need to protect the vulnerable and weaker countries with the desire to reduce needless conflict?
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