Something new, something blue. Something floating, something flu. Currently, one of the largest bird flu outbreaks is occurring. Bad enough as it is, here's the kicker: it appears that the virus has managed to infect mammals (including us!!!). Rare as they may be, it only takes a bit o' mutating in order to get widespread infections among our populations. Will this flu be the next pandemic? Hopefully not. Though if it does happen, and is handled the same way COVID was, then uh oh, spaghettio.
Bird flu, at least the current strain, H5N1, first came about in 2020, spreading to Africa, Asia, and Europe, then crossing over to NA in 2021. Bird flu is very, very contagious among avian populations, including chickens, eagles, hawks, ducks, geese, etc. From there, skunks, foxes, dolphins, bears, and others have also been detected to have the virus, though most of these cases appear to be from eating an infected bird.
Though there are cases that demonstrate mammal to mammal transmission, which is a big red flag. A mink farm in Spain, and dead seals in Maine. On the farm, minks that exhibited symptoms usually died within a few days. However, the real problem begins here: autopsies revealed pneumonia in their lungs; lungs closer to those of a human's than a bird's. Ferrets are our best model for human influenza infection, and happen to be close relatives to minks, meaning if the minks got it, then we might have a problem. Sequencing the strain, researchers discovered a mutation that does not exist in the bird version: "T271A in the PB2 gene" - which was also seen in the 2009 swine flu H1N1, which was responsible for more than 12,000 deaths in the US according to the CDC. Scientists worry that this may be the prelude to a human epidemic.
As of December, the WHO reported 6 infected from circulating bird flu strains. The 4 cases in the US and Europe were asymptomatic/mild, while the patient in Vietnam developed severe symptoms but lived, while the patient in China unfortunately died. At the moment, it's difficult for the virus to do human to human, and the overwhelming majority of cases are caused by close contact with birds. The flu targets the lower respiratory tract, showing preference in the lungs. This is both a good and bad thing; it means there are less viral particles concentrated in the nose and mouth, meaning less infectivity, but also means it is more capable of causing severe disease.
Given the viral nature, bird flu is unpredictable. It currently doesn't appear to support widespread mammalian transmission, but that obviously isn't a guarantee. Therefore, there is a nonzero chance that bird flu does in fact become a pandemic. Basically, scientists don't know when and how likely bird flu will become a pandemic, or if it will at all. Thus, be safe.
Assuming it does happen, the US may have some issues just like they did COVID. One critical issue was a decentralized response. Because of how our government is structured, a lot of the pandemic response was left up to state and local leaders, which led to a rinky-dink patchwork of policies that did not synergize at all, leading to spikes of infection, domino-ing into a huge burden on the healthcare system as hospitals filled up. Obviously, that was a disaster, especially when compared to how other nations handled it. They say history repeats itself, and we always hope it doesn't. But they say that for a reason.
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6 comments:
There's an ongoing outbreak of Marburg virus in Equatorial Giunea. With a case fatality rate over 50%, a widespread outbreak could devastate an entire country or region. Unlike Covid, however, it is not airborne, it takes direct contact to become infected. If something like Marburg or Ebola mutates to become significantly more contagious, however, the world is in for an actual lockdown that would make Covid look like a joke.
I have found Laurie Garrett to be one of the best sources for science journalism as related to Covid, and it turns out that she has written several books on this and related subjects going back to 1994: https://www.amazon.com/Coming-Plague-Emerging-Diseases-Balance/dp/0140250913
The Director General of the World Health Organization reported last week that the risk to humans is low at the moment but the situation needs to be monitored closely. WHO is increasing surveillance and monitoring the situation while engaging with manufacturers to ensure vaccines can be quickly delivered if needed. Companies like Todos Medical have already begun work in testing for the virus using investments and advances made to accommodate COVID PCR testing. It seems to me that because of Covid the world is more prepared if the virus mutated to be more transmissible to humans. Hopefully, world governments also continue to take caution and make the right decisions to create a more unified response. If statistics on the possible fatality rate are true then the world needs to be more unified than ever on a comprehensible plan of action and lockdown to survive the virus.
https://www.reuters.com/world/risk-humans-h5n1-bird-flu-remains-low-we-must-prepare-who-2023-02-08/
You put it perfectly when saying that while we hope it doesn't history ultimately repeats itself. Especially when it comes to the outbreak of sicknesses, we must ensure this vicious cycle doesn't continue. This current outbreak allows us as a society to take a step back and look more closely at our reliance on industries that clearly mistreat their product. Poultry producers have their stock living in cramped, uncomfortable, and downright dangerous environments which is the perfect combination for spreading a virus quickly. If we are to tackle the issue at its source the industry must be held accountable for the conditions in which they keep their animals.
I think that it is interesting that so far, the biggest impacts have been reported in countries across Europe and Asia. While the virus has not truly impacted America, there is always the possibility that it could continue to spread to other regions through international travel or trade.The impact of the bird flu outbreak on America would largely depend on the severity and spread of the virus. In the past, bird flu outbreaks have had varying degrees of impact, from mild illnesses to widespread infections and fatalities. However, it is important to note that the risk of contracting bird flu for the general population in America is still considered low. Based on the sources I read, I do not think that this would be comparable to what we had to deal with during the Covid-19 surges. Health organizations in America have been monitoring the situation closely and taking preventative measures, such as increasing surveillance for the virus and implementing biosecurity measures in poultry farms. I think since Covid, the US is better equipped to deal with issues like this.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/avian-flu-summary.htm
I think that while it is good to be wary of these diseases, a pandemic the size of Covid is highly unlikely as Covid is highly contagious as well as mild enough in many cases for people to unknowingly transmit it. There have been other viruses such as the recent Mpox outbreak as well that have had people on edge, and rightfully so, since there is always the chance of another pandemic. However, I also agree that the world is much better equipped for another pandemic, and the generations of people that have gone through Covid will have a better ability to adjust to a pandemic lifestyle if it were the case.
While the Bird Flu is not new, the fact that it is infecting mammals is very concerning. The possibility for mutations that could make the virus more transmissible between humans poses a concern for the entire world. It is particularly worrisome that pneumonia has been a symptom of Bird Flu on the mink farm. Since this flu is believed to target the lower respiratory tract in humans, hopefully what we have learned from Covid 19 will result in a better response. Initially with Covid, the ability to get enough ventilators for patients that needed them became a big issue in the early days and months of Covid. If this flu progresses into a pandemic, hopefully our states and local hospitals will be better prepared than they were initially for Covid. Additionally, US hospitals have learned more about treating large volumes of patients at a time from the Covid pandemic, and funding may need to be increased to handle any future pandemics. In addition to hospital care, funding is needed for vaccine and treatment medicines for future classes of viruses. As we have seen from the Covid response, funding for pandemic related measures must be a priority so that future viruses can be monitored to mitigate risk of future pandemics. Hopefully with more effort and funding put into early pandemic prevention, the WHO is able to contain future threats with what we have learned from Covid 19.
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