In recent months, the Myanmar military has escalated their violence against civilians through a strategy of massacres and burning down villages. On Dec. 7, soldiers hunted down civilians in the village of Done Taw, abducted children, killed healthcare workers, and tortured prisoners. The holidays didn't offer solace in the war-torn country either; on Christmas Eve, soldiers lit citizens on fire in the Hpruso township, amid clashes between the military and resistance forces.
Months following the 2020 Myanmar general election in November, the military ousted former de facto civilian leader of government Aung San Suu Kyi of the National League for Democracy party. Aung San Suu Kyi was arrested and detained on Feb. 1, effectively turning Myanmar rule to the military junta. Since the coup, the military seized control of infrastructure, internet access, and food supplies. Along with violence on all fronts, the military has cracked down on civilian armed resistance and nonviolent protests alike.
Since 2016, Myanmar has been committed to a course of genocide against the Rohingya people, the regional Muslim minority. Gambia filed a case at the UN International Court of Justice, accusing Myanmar of using “mass murder, rape, and other forms of sexual violence” against the Rohingya Muslims. In 2017, the Burmese military killed and raped hundreds of thousands, and forced 700,000 Rohingya to flee from Myanmar into Bangladesh.
This year, the military has escalated from persecuting the Rohingya minority to killing their own Buddhist Bamar ethnic majority.
When the Burmese military gets their hands dirty, they make sure to cover up their tracks. The Rakhine state has cracked down on traditional media, and as a result, aid and other international responses have been slow or unsuccessful. Americans' skepticism — even hostility — to truth, exemplified by former U.S. President Donald Trump's fondness for the term "fake news," has emboldened opposition to the press in countries like Turkey, Russia, Egypt, and Myanmar. When asked about the persecution of the Rohingya, a Myanmar senior government official responded: “There is no such thing as Rohingya. That is fake news.”
International attention, such as condemnation through sanctions, has had little to no effect on the government. Myanmar has suffered through sanctions from the U.S. before, so it’s nothing they’re not used to. The military ruled Myanmar with an iron fist for five decades despite asset freezes, travel bans, and other forms of international isolation.
Years of Western sanctions on the Tatmadaw have accustomed Myanmar's businessmen to such constraints, while ceding space for China’s influence to flourish. The most likely effect of sanctions would be to push the government, military, and population even closer together and to reinforce current narratives in Myanmar that the West is untrustworthy and unreliable.
Further, actors in the region are unable to create concrete change. For example, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is limited by their normative policy of non-intervention, forcing ASEAN countries to be complicit in the genocide of Rohingya Muslims and massacre of Burmese civilians.
Continued unrest in the region will exacerbate Southeast Asian instability, global supply chain shocks, and civilian suffering, which begs the question of whether military intervention is necessary, or should countries risk months of diplomatic negotiations (while people are dying) for a peaceful end to the crisis?
- Should the U.S. intervene in Myanmar? What are the stakes of the U.S. in this crisis? Should imperialist Western forces take a stand in this conflict, or leave it to regional actors?
- When approaching the Myanmar conflict, should military or diplomatic intervention be preferred?
- How can Myanmar’s National League for Democracy party regain power in the country?
- [NBC News] Myanmar military reverts to strategy of massacres, burnings, AP investigation finds
- [CFR] Rohingya Crisis in Myanmar | Global Conflict Tracker
- [BBC News] Aung San Suu Kyi: Myanmar democracy icon who fell from grace
- [NPR] Myanmar Military Employs Massacres And Scorched Earth Tactics Against Opponents
- [Al Jazeera] Christmas eve killings reinforce views of 'evil' Myanmar military
- [NYT] Myanmar Coup: What to Know About the Protests and Unrest
2 comments:
I am not too versed in the regional politics, but I think the US should take whatever policy needed to ensure the US has a greater zone of influence and control in the region. I think America would be however better off talking to Myanmar instead of gunboat diplomacy. Mostly because of the Chinese influence in the reason, using the military would only justify further alignment of Myanmar with the Chinese. If protecting ethnic minorities are a concern I think offering to take them in to the US would be a fair compromise to the gov't in charge as well as save as many as the US can. I doubt democracy will come to myanmar anytime soon though unless really drastic measures are taken.
I don't think the U.S. is in a position to intervene despite the increasing violence occurring in Myanmar. The U.S. has intervened into civil disputes in hopes of reinstating Democracy in the past with one recent example being Afghanistan. A U.S. intervention would be harmful towards the economy and it isn't worth sending troops or aid to Myanmar. However, I do think the U.S. could make some attempts to indirectly influence the Myanmar government such as stopping trade or inputting an embargo. I agree with Pascal that the situation in Myanmar is that Democracy is unlikely to be reinstated because the military government has been swift and violent towards establishing their rule and the rebellions are under-resourced and heavily disadvantaged.
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