Summary:
The articles linked to in the further reading section are intended to give more basic information about Ryan's retirement, but the focus of this post is based on 538's consideration of not just how Paul Ryan's departure from the role of Speaker of the House will change how the House runs, but how his departure is likely to have an effect on the makeup of the House itself following the midterm elections this Fall. The basic story is that Paul Ryan is retiring from the House in order to spend more time with his family. Ryan is from a fairly Republican district in Wisconsin, and he has previously defeated Democratic challengers for his seat by a comfortable margin, but, as we learned last semester, incumbency is a powerful factor in determining who will win a House or Senate election. With Ryan out of the picture the competition between Democrats and Republicans for his district will be fierce. It is also important to note that Ryan is not the only Republican abandoning ship, a record 38 House Republicans are not running for reelection, with 25 of them retiring from politics altogether. The point 538 makes is that while although a large number of retirements is not always indicative of poor electoral prospects, it definitely can be, especially if Ryan's retirement causes other Republicans from other competitive districts to retire as well.
Questions to Consider:
1. Will Paul Ryan run for president in 2020?
2. Do you think 538 is right about the possible effects Ryan's departure will have on the midterms?
3. Do you think Ryan's only reason for retiring is his family, or are there other factors involved? What might those other factors include?
Further Reading:
Politico Article
Wall Street Journal Article
5 comments:
I think personally we can not say for sure that Paul Ryan will run for president in 2020, but this could be a good hiatus in which he could recoup from. I think 538 is somewhat correct in predictions of their effect of Ryan's departure. I think some factors that could have lead to his early retirement could be an effect from the current administration.
I doubt Paul Ryan will run for president in 2020. He didn't even want to be speaker in 2015, but was basically forced in by the party, why would he want to be president instead? I think it's more likely that Ryan will enter the private sector as a consultant or a lobbyist. I suspect that Ryan's decision not to run this year will not change the results of the election by much. While Ryan was a big fundraiser for the party, his campaign already transferred a lot of its funds to the national party, and there is no guarantee that he won't continue fundraising. Either way, Republicans are likely to take big losses this year, as is consistent with previous midterm election data, and recent special election results. From what I've heard, Ryan may also be retiring because he is tired of working with Trump and that he already feels like he has accomplished his main goal, cutting taxes.
I agree with Josh in the sentiment that we cannot determine if Ryan will run for president or not. On the other hand, I do not think Ryan is affecting other members of Congress in their decisions to run for re-election or not. It is a hard time to be in politics right now. Also, the GOP is having a lot of internal disagreements, which probably discourages some to run again. I do not think spending more time with his family is the only reason Ryan is not running. We saw Ryan's predecessor as Speaker, John Boehner, crack under the pressure of the position. Ryan's reasons for retiring may be similar to Boehner.
I cannot say definitely what Paul Ryan wants since I do not happen to be a mind reader. However, I think his current administration may have something to do with his retirement. As many know already, there have been various members of the Trump admin who are retiring or resigning as an effect of working with Trump. I think this may have some weight to his decision. I think the House will become more competitive as a result since a chief competitor will not be participating in an election next time around.
First off, Paul Ryan was the punching bag for the media throughout Trump's presidency and can not say I envy the decisions he had to make because of how anti conventional Republican Trump has been thus far. I agree with Will in his belief that Ryan will most likely enter the private sector to earn more money doing an easier job which I guarantee he will enjoy much more. Being Speaker of the House, let alone representing the Republican party with what Trump has done to it only serves to reaffirm the claim that this will be a really dreadful midterm for the party. I am sad to see such a smart and competent Speaker leave the office but life goes on in Washington.
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