The New Front in the Gerrymandering Wars: Democracy vs. Math

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Gerrymandering, when politicians draw district boundaries in ways that help them get reelected, has always been a concern. This fall it will get national attention when the Supreme Court hears Gill v Whitford, a case that raises questions about gerrymandering in Wisconsin. The swing state that has been trending republican in recent years was key to President Trump's victory in November where he earned a narrow 22,000 vote victory. At the state level, questions have been raised over how republican state assemblymen could win the majority of the seats without the majority of the vote as happened in 2012.

In 2004, the five conservatives on the Supreme Court ruled in Vieth v Jubelirer that the court should not address partisan gerrymandering and leave that power in the hands of state lawmakers as prescribed in the Constitution. The question now becomes whether a Supreme Court with the same 5-4 conservative-liberal divide will rule the same way or whether their perspective will shift given the mounting evidence of gerrymandering.

Voters have become predictable and it is well known that democrats cluster in cities and republicans dominate in rural areas. With both parties attempting to use gerrymandering to their advantages, there have been fewer competitive House races since 2010. As we move closer to the 2020 redistricting, undoubtedly Democrats and Republicans will be jockeying for position to influence how the district maps are redrawn.

What will the Supreme Court say about this issue? The plaintiffs in Gill are not asking the Supreme Court to end gerrymandering but rather control it so as not to badly warp the outcome of elections. When one examines the data presented in the article it could be argued that the results of many legislative elections already are heavily impacted by partisan and racial gerrymandering. It raises the question of whether gerrymandering can actually be limited in the 2020 redistricting or whether it will actually get worse as predicted? Given all of the questions raised and ongoing investigations of external involvement in the 2016 election, can U.S. elections still be considered reliable or could they be improved with reforms?