The election is now just three days away and there are still many possible outcomes and predictions. It seems increasingly likely that Obama will win the election through a majority of electoral votes, although the popular vote winner could be either candidate. Obama appears to be ahead in most swing states, where the election will be decided. Obama has slight leads in Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, New Hampshire, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa Pennsylvania, and most importantly, Ohio. Romney maintains his leads in Florida and North Carolina.
Of course, more than just the presidency is on the line in this election. Republicans are expected to still have far more state governors than democrats and are expected to augment their majority in the House of Representatives. Democrats will most likely hold a slim majority in the Senate.
Voter turnout will be key to both candidates. Already, millions of people have voted early and it appears that Obama has won most of the early vote, especially in key swing states. Obama has invested a lot in get out the vote efforts and early voting, so this trend makes sense. However, what will voter turnout be on election day, and who will this help? Overall, voter turnout is expected to be less than what it was in 2008, but still greater than turnout in 1996 and 2000. Hurricane Sandy could lower turnout in the heavily democratic Northeast and may help Republicans in Pennsylvania.
Although there are significantly more registered Democrats than Republicans, a popular Republican narrative is that Republicans, especially in this election, will have a higher voter intensity that will win Romney the election. Consider this quote from FOX news: "Self-identified Democrats usually outnumber self-identified Republicans. Republicans therefore rely on the aforementioned turnout advantage combined with support from independents to win elections. That’s certainly the case this year." There is some truth to this narrative. Republicans have more reason to feel enthusiastic about this election and many Democrats report feeling less enthusiastic about this election than in 2008.
What do you think? Does Romney still stand a chance or are the polls trustworthy enough to predict an Obama electoral victory?
6 comments:
In response to the closing question, I personally believe that public opinion of the candidates is such that Obama is perceived to be the less unqualified of the two. I've heard the term "dead heat" on the radio often enough in the past three weeks.
And to add to that, I felt that the president's performance at the final debate simply locked in a sense of unpredictability. Watching Obama's underwhelming performance at the first debate, I was left wondering what his big picture strategy over the course of the three debates would be, and his final appearance seemed to point to a crescendo contrasted to Romney's apparent decline (although in the immediate aftermath of the foreign policy debate, one news agency posited that Romney's passiveness was a show of "control," though others pointed to that as an indicator of Romney parroting the rhetoric of his advisers).
In any case, Romney seems to be the butt of more political satire than Obama, if you think about the 47 percent, "binders" and "fewer bayonets and cavalry.
Like Sangwon, I have heard the term "dead heat" as well as "virtual tie" over the television and radio. There are so many contradicting polls and biased analysts online that it is difficult for me, or anyone else, to judge who is winning right before the election. I am interested in which polls say Obama is leading and which polls say Romney is winning because the sources could wish to influence one side or another.
Personally, I feel listening to the noise of the media right before the election is pointless. Like Clinton and Obama during the 2008 primaries, both candidates will try to spin news so that it appears that they are winning. Of course, as the early vote shows, Obama has an advantage, but that could change very quickly in a few days.
I honestly believe Romney has just as much as a chance as Obama at this point because the election is just too close to call. A recent TIME magazine I read showed an electoral map where both candidates had virtually the same amount of guaranteed electoral votes, so I feel this election will be a close one. Hopefully, this will not become swallowed by cries of voter fraud or lead to another 2000 election. Both candidates are even preparing lawyers, can you believe that?
After finishing the last chapter, I find Sangwon's comment about how Romney is the target of satire worth mentioning. Considering that the majority of media journalists have liberal views, could it be that they are deliberately attacking Romney for Obama's sake? You answer that question yourself.
As our textbook notes, Gallup is a reputable poll that has great successful in predicting the winner when there is not a significant third party candidate. However, the recent catastrophe at the East Coast made their tracking polls go on hiatus. Gallup has showed a Romney advantage a few days ago, but that could have changed after the disaster.
In conclusion, I personally believe that we should just ignore the polls and go out and vote; do not let the news media or free media tell you who to vote for. John Adams himself said that: "We electors have an important constitutional power placed in our hands: we have a check upon two branches of the legislature, as each branch has upon the other two; the power I mean of electing at stated periods, one branch, which branch has the power of electing another. It becomes necessary to every subject then, to be in some degree a statesman: and to examine and judge for himself of the tendencies of political principles and measures. "
By no means is this election over yet. While there are several polls illustrating an Obama victory, I’ve seen electoral college outcome predictions favoring Romney, and not always by a slim margin. In fact, watching CNN this weekend, during live coverage of last minute, swing state Ohio rallies organized by both the Obama and Romney campaigns, newscasters discussed a prediction in which Romney won the presidency by a landslide, securing 315 electoral votes compared to Obama’s 223. Like always, Obama has solid Democratic states secured on the west coast and in the northeast, while Romney has most of middle America and strong southern support. I apologize for beating a dead horse, but like Sangwon and Matthew have said, this election truly comes down to winning critical swing states. I don’ think either candidate firmly believes he’s in the lead, which is why both are campaigning down to the wire in the states that count. With election day quickly approaching, we see unique strategy which may be the deciding factor in a race as tight as this. Obama and Romney are increasingly focusing their efforts on Ohio, but I’ve heard of plans where Romney gives up Ohio, instead attempting to overtake Pennsylvania, a state with 21 electoral votes compared to Ohio’s 18. Romney is favored in states North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado, and Florida, yet his victory is entirely dependent on the decisions of independent voters. Favorable outcomes in these states, combined with low voter turnout in the northeast, could provide Romney with enough to take down the incumbent.
I agree with the people above me, the current state of things seems to not have a definite answer. The election is really close and could lead to the popular vote winner being different than the electoral college winner.
I also believe that Sandy is having a large effect on a lot of people that would normally be contributing to the polls. The massive challenges that the East Coast is dealing with are preventing accurate reporting of the current situation.
Another important point to keep in mind is that while polls are great and give a lot of information they are subject to bias just as any other report. Close swing states can be called either way depending on who is doing the polling and what their opinion is.
I also agree with the statements above; right now certain win can not be determined for either candidate.
I hate to mention the swing states again, but that is what the election will truly come down to in a close race like this. I would like to bring up Keaton's comment about independent voters. Through the news and class discussion, it seems that independent voters tend to lean more left than right. This is just a general trend, however, in crucial swing states it may be the deciding factor. If independent voters align themselves more left, then states where it is very close (like Ohio) are more likely to go to Obama. However, trends will not tell the full story of what will occur on election day and it is up to how the independent voters actually cast their ballot. In my opinion, this presidential race will be a nail biter right up to the very end.
Swing states get a disproportional amount of attention during election seasons. While this probably keeps them happy enough to ignore the fact that they live in Ohio, it's not a good policy.
Anyway. I've been torn on whether or not the term "dead heat" is a term used for the excuse of more media coverage, or whether it's just the results taken from a couple polls. A blog mentioned in class, Nate Silver's 538 blog, analyzes all of the polls recently and combines them to form his opinion. While sites like CNN may have been calling this a horse race for weeks, Silver's blog has remained relatively consistent.
That's just a little election mystery, though. FOX New's comment also confused me a bit. I was under the impression that more people identified as Republicans, and that Democrats were the ones with the difficulty in bringing voters to the polls (which I think was mentioned in our textbook). Regardless, it seems like that Obama will likely win tonight. Without such a dramatically different primary campaign, I think Romney might have stood a far better chance.
Though I'm still amazed people consider Bain Capital a "small business."
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