Monday, February 1, 2016

First Official Start to 2016 Presidential Primary

The long anticipated Iowa Caucus is set to commence tonight, where hopeful candidates for the Presidency seek to kick off their campaigns on the right foot.

There are a handful of major story lines that will be highly analyzed. Whether Donald Trump can ride his wave of attention and secure a stunning victory in the Republican Party. Or if Bernie Sanders, who early on in the campaign process was down by a wide margin, can comeback and secure the win in Iowa over the longtime favorite Hillary Clinton. Both candidates, being Sanders and Trump, share one common hope for the Iowa caucus; large voter turnout. Recent Quinnipiac polls show Trump leading Ted Cruz 31-24 percent in Iowa, and Sanders narrowly leading Clinton 49-46 percent.

However, among the first time Iowa caucus voters polled, Trump leads Cruz 40-22 percent and Sanders dominates Clinton 62-35 percent. These finding lead various election analysts such as Peter Brown to believe that voter turnout is a crucial point in this Caucus. If it's just the usual voters that vote in every Caucus, then it is really up in the air as to which candidate will win in each party. However, if surges of new voters turnout to this campaign, as many people predict, the advantage will go to Trump and Sanders.

For the numerous amounts of people in our class who are "feeling the bern," you'll be glad to know that the pressure is really on Hillary Clinton right now. Polls in New Hampshire, where the next primary is scheduled for, show Sanders holding a comfortably lead over Clinton. Being down 2-0 in the first two primaries and eventually winning the party's nomination and the overall presidency has only been done by one candidate in history since these two primaries came into prominence in 1972; you guessed it, Bill Clinton.

Obviously winning Iowa tonight is a good start for all of the candidates in the field, however, our recent elections show that the first winner doesn't always secure their party's nomination. For example, in 2008, Mike Huckabee won the caucuses, but John McCain went on to win the nomination for the Republican Party. Likewise, in 2012, Rick Santorum narrowly won Iowa, but Mitt Romney eventually secured his party's nomination.

This topic is hard to tie back to government related issues, so I thought I would just ask an open question as to what do you think about the current state of the candidates so far? I know that this election will be our first to opportunity to vote in a presidential election, and I'm curious to know which candidates you prefer at this point?

No comments: